A couple Pirates-related notes today:
-P- Carlos Pena signed with the Rays. Most of us here aren't really expecting the Pirates to sign a first baseman at this point, just hoping for it. This decreases the likelihood that will happen.
-P- Chris Snyder signed with the Astros. There was a minor groundswell of support for re-signing Snyder here, in part because Michael McKenry is no great shakes and Rod Barajas can't be counted on for more than 100 games or so. There were never any serious rumors connecting him to the Bucs, however. It looks like the Pirates are set with Barajas, McKenry and possibly Jose Morales.
These moves don't prove a whole lot, but they don't exactly refute the thesis that the Pirates are probably done making major moves this offseason.
0 recs | 137 comments
I liked Snyder
No big loss, but I wouldn’t have minded having one more catcher.
Kosstic518 - January 20, 2012
at this point i’m kind of sold on Morales over McKenry
Mingy - January 20, 2012
Derek Lee
There is very little demand for Lee, and hardly any teams would offer a starting job to him. Doesn’t the Pena signing help the Pirates, now that there is one less suitor?
H2O - January 20, 2012
I don't think it makes a difference
I think Pittsburgh is basically the last place he wants to go.
glass0941 - January 20, 2012
honestly you guys
and not singling out you two.
WHO GIVES A SHIT
Derrek Lee put up 1.4 WAR last year. ew. And he’s old and he’s going to be expesnive and clearly he doesn’t want to play here so F HIM. GFJ and McGhee platoon i will guarantee to put up more than 1.4 WAR. There ya go kids.
I’m just so tired of this Derrek Lee stuff – he’s nottttttt who we would want at ALL
Mingy - January 20, 2012
I'm confused...
How do you really feel about signing D. Lee, Mingy? I’m sensing some ambivalence.
Seriously, I think the argument for D. Lee is comfort that we’d know pretty much what we had, as opposed to the Jones/Evans/McGehee mix, which is more of the standard hope/pray everything improves variety. I don’t disagree with you, though, I think there’s enough in that mix to provide more WAR than people think.
jperb - January 20, 2012
im against it
from what i remember? hope i didnt flip flop but ive been saying for awhile that i’d rather see someone with the potential to contribute for at least more than one year (this aint the year)
the last thing in the universe we should do is sign a veteran 1b
Mingy - January 20, 2012
I personally wouldn't sign him
I’m jusy saying I doubt he wants to be here at all
glass0941 - January 20, 2012
oh i know man
i’m sorry i’m just so incredibly tired of the “we want Derrek Lee but he doesnt want to play in crappy Pittsburgh” meme. its not crappy. hes crappy.
I think there’s no chance NH actually WANTS to sign him, he’s just posturing and hoping that someone else does so we get a comp pick
If this were possible in a vacuum somehow that next season Nick Evans and Derrek Lee both got a full season of ABs i would bet up to $1000 that Nick Evans would produce more WAR. srsly. I’d take that bet
Mingy - January 20, 2012
lee over a whole season alone
Would be risky, but I bet if you platooned lee/jones instead of mcgehee/jones, the lee platoon would be more productive. But as mentioned, I don’t think lee signs here if he’s the small RH part of a 1B platoon
titanlord91 - January 21, 2012
I’m not expecting anything at all out of McGehee this year. He might bounce back, but he might not, either.
What leads you to be so sure that he will?
Vlad - January 22, 2012
mcgehee
because i expect his true talent level to lie between the 1.5 seasons of high productivity and last years awfulness.
i actually think that Nick Evans will be GFJ’s platoon partner though and not McGehee
Mingy - January 22, 2012
i dont see the FO platooning Pedro. so mcgehee would have to be a bench player like mclouth.
i dont think thats why he was aquired.
white angus - January 22, 2012
I don’t think we gave up our setup man for a pinch hitter. My guess is Pedro will sit every third lefty or so and occasionally on righties if CM is hitting. Mcgehee will likely see plenty of time at 1B as well.
Mr. E - January 23, 2012
saya nara
karreemofwheat - January 20, 2012
Pirates well suited to trade for a 1B
I would rather Derek Lee sign somewhere else and us pick up that extra draft pick. He doesn’t want to play here and it looks more and more likely he is going to retire. There isn’t much out on the free agent market that we could get to upgrade 1B, and it is time they look for a long term solution. I think there are just as many questions about Hague, Curry and Dickerson as there are answers. Maybe one of them could step up and eventually take the job but it wouldn’t surprise me that the base case scenario is one of them turning into a Steve Pearce type player and still looking for the big bat at first. The Angels would be a good trade partner with Trumbo or even going after the young CJ Cron who has a lot of power. Maybe Tommy Joseph from the Giants would be worth a look too, but I think if you try this year he is going to cost too much. Yelich from Miami would be a nice get as well. They are looking to win now, so maybe we can trade a guy like Tabata to get him. Unfortunately the Marlins don’t have the best system, or else I would even consider a deal with Andrew McCutchen for Yelich, a top tier pitcher and a couple of other prospects. If they are not going to be serious about an extension with Cutch then this is something else to look at, maybe a 3 team blockbuster that will set the buccos for the future.
sidbreamslegs - January 20, 2012
If Derek Lee retires
Does Pittsburgh get a comp pick? Or if he signs after the season starts?
SuperBaes - January 20, 2012
No, and I don’t think so.
WHYG Zane Smith - January 20, 2012
Pirates
Just saw an article that mentioned that Milwaukee’s payroll was around the $100 million mark. The Pirates are sitting slightly above $40 mil.
Is there something wrong here that I’m not aware of?
Wasn’t attendance up last year?
HonzaBednarik - January 20, 2012
We
ain’t done yet. I’m still holding out hope of an extension for Cutch as well. Upton signed an extension last year in March.
On Pena and Lee, this moves the 1B market a bit, although Fielder is still the issue.
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 20, 2012
Brewers attendance 2011 was 3,071,373
Pirates attendance for 2011 was 1,940,429
crusty - January 20, 2012
The same article also mentioned that the Brewers are fretting about going over budget, didn’t it?
WHYG Zane Smith - January 20, 2012
How many times can you make the same TROLLING point?
Yes, and….? MOST of the Pirates players are in their first few years as pros. They’re not going to get multi-million dollar contracts.
Yes, obviously there is. Your comprehension is lacking, greatly. How many times must you have the answer put in front of you?
.
.
…seriously, dude….
.
cocktailsfor2 - January 20, 2012
Poor horse
CO_Bucs - January 21, 2012
no animals were harmed during this blog post
BostonBuc - January 21, 2012
"Is there something wrong here that I’m not aware of?"
The Brewers are in the “all in – go for it now” mode. The Pirates are not even close to being in that position. In a couple years if the Pirates are in that position in terms of both of players and attendance then you might have a legit complaint about the disparity. Right now? Not so much.
Pagliaroni - January 21, 2012
Well, it is January and the money tree is bare. But come spring time I’m sure Pirates management will be out spending galore. Or…there is no money tree and it will take a little more than a half season of slightly higher attendance to fill the coffers enough to allow for a $100M payroll. God, you people sound like children who have no concept of a budget. You can’t spend money you don’t have. I don’t see why this is so hard to comprehend.
PensFan024 - January 21, 2012
They may not have the money for a $100M payroll...
but one of two things is correct.
1) The Pirates can afford a significantly higher payroll than what they are carrying.
or
2) The Pirates are close to maxing out their payroll. And in that case, they will never be able to support a $100M payroll, or even $80M. Because of the economics. About 525,000 fans more attendance than 2011 would give the Pirates a club record attendance. If one assumes an average ticket price of $20 (which is actually a shade high for the Pirates based on past seasons), that’s only going to add ~$10M to ticket revenue.
Even if the Pirates max out attendance at PNC Park…say 38,500 for EVERY game (capacity is 38,363, so I’m giving a little room for standing room, that only adds roughly $23M in ticket revenues to what the Pirates did in 2011.
Thunder - January 21, 2012
If the Pirates ever produce a legitimately good team, they’ll be able to raise their ticket prices to what Milwaukee and Cincinnatti are charging. Certainly, if they’re selling out every game the average price will be a lot more than $20.
maguro - January 21, 2012
Right. This is why the Pirates pretty much had to raise ticket prices this year, and why they will probably have to continue making modest increases going forward.
Charlie Wilmoth - January 21, 2012
Actually...the number in the April 2011 research...
was $15.30 for an average ticket for the Pirates…the lowest in MLB. Even the premium seating (think luxury boxes, as an example)…the Pirates are 27th of 30 teams in MLB.
average ticket prices
If I recall correctly, and someone correct me if I am wrong…most of the ticket increases for 2012 were less than a dollar.
Thunder - January 21, 2012
This
would just support the conclusion that the way the Bucs can increase their payroll is a multi-step process. At the risk of sounding overly simplistic, first they have to win, then they can sell more tickets, then they can raise ticket prices to a more appropriate level (look at prices for the Penguins…$45 for crap seats). There is also the potential for added revenue from advertising and TV deals. Under the current economic system within MLB, the Pirates can afford ~$55M this year and ~$85M under the best circumstances.
KentuckyPirate - January 22, 2012
TV deals...
are generally for a significant number of years. Don’t know how long the ROOT contract is, but they wouldn’t get a shot at added revenue until the contract is renewed.
Thunder - January 22, 2012
Wasn’t the Root deal like a 15 year deal or something stupid? I seem to remember seeing that it would run to like 2027 or something silly like that.
pskell02 - January 22, 2012
It was up substantially last year… but still the second-worst in the National League. And our ticket prices are some of the cheapest in MLB, too.
Vlad - January 22, 2012
I'm excited to see what Hague can do.
Even though it’ll be his age-27 season, he seems consistent and injury-free. If he could put up above an .800 OPS that would be better than we’ve had in a few years at 1B. Minus the periodic good play of Jones, Adam LaRoche was our last legit 1B.
That makes me sad. Dear Pirates, can you please find/uncover/sign/trade for/discover/promote an actual major league first baseman?
CO_Bucs - January 21, 2012
(It’ll actually be his age-26 season.)
Charlie Wilmoth - January 21, 2012
Hague will be 27 for the playoffs!!!
(That’s probably what CO_Bucs was talking about!)
impliedi - January 21, 2012
That's the spirit
CO_Bucs - January 21, 2012
Thanks
CO_Bucs - January 21, 2012
Unfortunately, there is nothing in his performance record to suggest that he is capable of this.
Vlad - January 22, 2012
The problem with Jones and Hague at 1B is defense
Has everyone forgotten that Jones can’t make the infield throws? And doesn’t have good range? And after playing 260 innings there last year, expect an improvement? And Hague is worse…an error machine. McGehee hasn’t played the position in years. These are the reasons we need Derek Lee.
Central*Scrutinizer - January 21, 2012
Yeah, but there are 9M-10M reasons....
…that Huntington isn’t going to sign DLee.
Midnight Moose - January 21, 2012
I think the big reason is....
…Lee is not interested in signing here.
Brakeman8 - January 21, 2012
Wait, you mean BOTH parties much ascend to the contract voluntarily?
Weird…
glass0941 - January 21, 2012
Strange....
Brakeman8 - January 21, 2012
yes
but any one can descend! :-)
BurgherKing - January 22, 2012
Yeah, I agree Huntington probably won't sign DLee and/or he won't come to Pgh.
But my point was that the Pirates NEED him, or someone like him. Slugger in the middle of lineup makes the hitter in front of him better. Provides stable, predictable defense. Can play everyday, all 9 innings. Don’t have to worry about same hand relief pitcher coming in to thwart the platoon in late innings (who is going to be our 9th inning defensive replacement at 1B, anyway?). The other 4 options don’t come close to meeting the requirements, in any combination or as an aggregate. $9M is not that bad and we can flip him at the deadline.
Central*Scrutinizer - January 22, 2012
ok
Or we just use Nick Evans. Nick Evans is better than Derrek Lee defensively and actually has upside. Oh yeah and he’s costs about 1/20th of the cost and actually wants to play here. Give me Evans
Mingy - January 21, 2012
Yep, not since Sept. 28.
impliedi - January 21, 2012
That's several dog years at least
maguro - January 21, 2012
That was in 2011; this is 2012.
So: Years.
At least, "years ending in ‘12.’ "
bucdaddy - January 21, 2012
Played or Appeared
Casey McGehee has played exactly 22 innings at 1st base since he came to the Majors in 2008——mop up or emergency duty all.
I wouldn’t exactly call that “playing the position.” He’s only 22 innings ahead of Pedro Alvarez; heck, he’s only 22 innings ahead of Charlie Morton!
Groat2Maz2Strangeglove - January 21, 2012
Yes, thank you, that's what i meant
Central*Scrutinizer - January 21, 2012
In my opinion, many people on this site make way too big a deal of infielders’ inexperience at infield positions that are easier than the ones they usually play. If someone can play third, he can probably play first, especially if he’s not being counted on to start. It’s not that big a deal.
Charlie Wilmoth - January 21, 2012
Agreed
Read or watch Moneyball. Scott Hatteberg had never played 1B before landing the starting job with the A’s. They did OK with him there.
Brakeman8 - January 21, 2012
Working in one case
doesn’t mean it will work in all cases. Ryan Doumit certainly couldn’t play 1B (an “easy” position) but he could catch (a harder position) even if he wasn’t great at it.
KentuckyPirate - January 22, 2012
Doumit is one of the most awkward “athletes” I’ve ever seen and the rest of MLB seemed to agree he’s not much of a C either
Mr. E - January 22, 2012
Don't sell defense short
Not sure I agree with you. First base is not easier than 3B, and it requires a different skill set. Third basemen tend to play closer to the batter and most often their fielding is one movement, reaction time and throw. A first baseman not only has to prepare for reaction time, but then has to be on the move and set his feet properly while on the run to receive a throw. He may even be lunging right then have to recover and move left to the base.
And then, most importantly, while setting his feet one avoiding the runner who will be barreling through his space, he has to read the infielder’s arm speed and angle to pick up the throw, preparing to turn his glove to receive a high throw or pick up the spin and scoop a bounce in the dirt.
Much was made of Cedeno being better in the field in 2011, dropping his errors from 18 to 13. It might have to do with the 10 less games he played; it also might have to do with the around 30 games Derrek Lee play at 1st. Lee is a master at scooping throws in the dirt, thus saving his infielders errors.
Unless Pirates have a Big Bopper playing 1st, an adequate to poor fielder/scooper at 1B will just continue to doom the non-K, pitch-to-contact Pirate pitching staff. Neither of the Pirates’ present 1B will be a positive to their pitching staff.
Groat2Maz2Strangeglove - January 21, 2012
Anyone who’s ever watched a game understands that the job of a first baseman is somewhat different than that of an infielder at another position. Just empirically, though, infielders come from other positions to first base all the time, and the transition usually goes fine.
Cedeno was having a strong defensive season before Lee showed up.
Charlie Wilmoth - January 21, 2012
Rec'd
Good arguments backed by actual explanations of fielding technique from experience. Wow, don’t see that on this site very often. Trust me though, the “anybody can play first base” meme prevails on this site throughout the year, so don’t be disappointed if no one else agrees with you. Until Jones has to execute a 3-6-3 DP.
Central*Scrutinizer - January 21, 2012
Since we're talking about McGehee's defense
Can you name one player who was good enough to play regularly at 3B but couldn’t handle 1B defensively? I can’t think of any off the top of my head. To me, it’s like saying that even though we know a guy can play CF adequately, we don’t know if he can handle LF. Doesn’t make any sense to me.
maguro - January 21, 2012
Oh come on!
A LF has to deal with the foul line and the stands and the ball has english when it’s hit directly towards him. A CF could never figure all that stuff out.
Mr. E - January 22, 2012
Don't forget Bartman
Zadoras - January 22, 2012
I'M Batman!!!
Oh, you said Bartman…never mind.
Midnight Moose - January 23, 2012
BlindSquirrel - January 23, 2012
most people on this site don't judge fielding by errors alone
However, if you do, Cedeno had six throwing errors all season, and two of them came in one game with Lee at first, so the evidence that Lee saved a bunch of Cedeno’s errors is pretty weak.
WHYG Zane Smith - January 21, 2012
whoops, one of those is probably a fielding error
“Pena forced Ramirez (second to shortstop) [Campana scored (error by Cedeno)” must be a throwing error, but “LaHair reached on a fielder’s choice [Pena to second (error by Cedeno; assist by Morton)” has to be a fielding error.
So one of Cedeno’s six fielding errors came with Lee at first. Since Lee was at first for only around 1/6 of Cedeno’s games (since they were both injured some of the time after Lee came over), this is still pretty unimpressive.
WHYG Zane Smith - January 21, 2012
You’re 50% correct, in that your second sentence is true. The first one is false.
Once the footwork around the bag is learned, that’s pretty much it.
You mean catch the ball, just like any other position?
Feh.
And yes, I’ve played both positions. And catcher, too, which is the hardest position to play.
cocktailsfor2 - January 22, 2012
Scoop a bounce in the dirt
I accept your equating your experience in terms of footwork, positioning, fielding grounders, etc. So if you played the position, how was your scooping ability? Do you think you could scoop 99 out of 100 or 995 out of 1000 throws bounced or in the dirt? At major league speed? Considering MLB infielders are trained to skip their throws as well. Repeatability is the issue.
Central*Scrutinizer - January 22, 2012
Not all bounces are created equal
though I imagine MLB fields get smoother ones than I’ve ever seen. Where it hits, dirt or grass, and which fielder it’s coming from is about all you have to get used to. And have elite hand eye coordination and quick hands, which 99% of MLB ballplayers possess.
Mr. E - January 22, 2012
also the spin on the ball plays a part in the "scoop"
not every infielder throws the same, plus 2Bmen throw across their bodies more which, when shortarmed, tend to have a screwball affect on certain DP situations
wow, i almost sound like i know what im talking about when i absolutely dont!!!
white angus - January 22, 2012
Yep, any sidearmed throw also bounces back to the left. The main point is that to be good at scooping you need to have great wrist quickness and coordination and to be a major league baseball player you need great wrist quickness and coordination. The skills are inherently built in, though the doubters will never admit this reality.
Mr. E - January 23, 2012
Scooping a bounce in the dirt...
is not really different than short-hopping a grounder. Or deciding where the hop is going based on how far the ball is from you when it bounces (to the left, right, waist-high, knee-high etc. etc.)….
I was primarily (8 years) a catcher, which is hardest in terms of judging spins, angles, etc. because of different speeds and spins (FB, Curve, etc.) IMO…
Could I do it at “Major-League” speed? No – otherwise Id’ve played pro ball.
1B really is the easiest position in the IF. The only thing easier is RF, in general.
cocktailsfor2 - January 22, 2012
Agreed...
played everywhere but 2B, SS and P. 1B is the easiest other than RF…but even then, it’s not a place you can just throw someone out there. My knees aren’t particularly thrilled with my days as a catcher.
Thunder - January 22, 2012
a 1B
is just a 3B without the arm.
BlindSquirrel - January 23, 2012
Yes, it is. There’s a reason that no-glove guys like Prince Fielder and Dick Stuart end up as first basemen: the defensive requirements at that position are lower than anywhere else on the diamond. If you look at league-wide batting splits, 1Bs as a group always hit more than 3Bs do. That’s because good batters with poor defensive skills are easier to hide there.
First base is much more forgiving of immobility (since there are fewer balls pulled down the RF line than the LF line, and there are fewer bunt plays on that side of the diamond), as well as weakness or inaccuracy of the throwing arm (since first basemen really only ever need to throw the ball on double plays, force plays, flips to the pitcher, or the occasional cutoff).
Vlad - January 22, 2012
I agree with you about 99% on this, Charlie.
I agree that for any vet (that can play reasonable defense) transitioning to 1st would be no problem. For instance, I imagine that if you gave Jack Wilson a couple of days of practice at 1B, he’d walk into a game and not embarrass himself out there.
My only concern is more with younger players, not because playing first is all that difficult, but I imagine a position change for a young player may be a bit intimidating, from a mental standpoint.
That’s been my basic argument when the discussion comes up about moving Pedro to first (which happens many, many times, of course.)
I’ve got no problem eventually moving him to first. I imagine he can handle the position fine eventually. But, I worry about a young guy who’s struggling massively at the plate (and who’s future depends 100% on that bat) and throwing him into a new position. I would think moving him now, when he’s trying to figure out his bat would mean that when it comes to his offense and defense, one or the other or both struggles. He either spends so much time working on his offense, and spends none on learning first. Or he worries so much about learning his new position (whether warranted or not), and doesn’t put that effort towards repairing his offense.
So, I’d agree that given the right mindset or a reasonable amount of time being relatively successful in the majors, would allow just about anybody to be fine moving to first. My only hesitation is with a young, struggling slugger.
So, I think the transition to first is much more mental, than a physical challenge.
impliedi - January 21, 2012
Are practices not organized? Since when does a player just get to pick what he wants to do in practice? I think Pedro would spend the EXACT amount of time on defense as he would if playing 3B. And you still overestimate the difficulty of learning first base. How to hold a runner, PFP, bunts and double plays, cutoffs; all stuff that can be learned in a day.
Also, for boys as thick as Mcgehee and Pedro, I would not be surprised in the least if they played 1B at some point in their youth.
Mr. E - January 22, 2012
Wow, my posts must be too long.
I sometimes feel like I’m on the Twilight Zone. People are so quick to respond to what I say, that I can tell they aren’t actually reading (or comprehending what I wrote.)
All I’m saying is that moving a young struggling slugger to a new position is just a plain stupid thing to do. (Maybe that’s easier to understand.)
Just because a person practices something, doesn’t mean their mind is in it.
Wow. Just knowing what to do is a very small part of the equation. Execution only comes through repetition. We’re talking about competency here. We’re talking about the mental aspect of playing. The “skill” of playing first is quite simple. But, that’s not at all what I’m talking about.
As I’ve said ad nauseum, a reasonably competent fielder or a guy who has any reasonable amount of time in the majors, should be able to transition to any new position on the field, without much struggle.
impliedi - January 22, 2012
Sometimes it is, and sometimes it isn’t. Sometimes, if a struggling young slugger is distracted by trying to play a position that’s beyond his abilities, moving him to an easier position will jump-start his bat by letting him focus on what he does best.
Vlad - January 22, 2012
Heard this plenty with Alex Gordon last year.
SuperBaes - January 23, 2012
“All I’m saying is that moving a young struggling slugger to a new position is just a plain stupid thing to do. (Maybe that’s easier to understand.)”
And, once again, that is not true. Maybe that is easier to understand? A played isn’t thinking about his cutoff responsibilities while he’s up at the plate.
Perhaps it is you who doesn’t know what you said.
“He either spends so much time working on his offense, and spends none on learning first. Or he worries so much about learning his new position (whether warranted or not), and doesn’t put that effort towards repairing his offense.”
None of that has anything to do with the mental aspect of the game. You are talking about splitting his time unevenly and I’m just not sure how that is possible.
Sure, getting moved to a lesser position might hurt a players confidence but you only mentioned a general position move so even that doesn’t fully apply. You mention struggling hitters, so I have to assume you mean taking their hitting struggles to the field, in which case it would affect the team even less than if a player were playing a more demanding position (like 3B instead of 1B) so again that isn’t a valid point.
As for the last part, I’m saying that mental repetition can be gained very, very quickly for 1B. If the player were to screw up I’d blame his skill or focus way before I blamed his preparation level.
Mr. E - January 23, 2012
So who do you want to start at 1B?
My point was that Jones, Hague, and McGehee are unacceptable as everyday starter options because of their defense. Not sure about Evans. I’m talking about someone who can play 150+ games and finish in the top 5 in the gold glove at the position. Somehow who has experience in making all the plays. Not sure why you turned this thread into a point about whether McGehee could fillin if all the rest of them get hurt.
Central*Scrutinizer - January 21, 2012
Hey, if the Pirates can get Lee, great. I’m not arguing that Lee’s defense wouldn’t be better than McGehee’s. But if McGehee is unacceptable as a starter (or in a platoon role), I think it’s probably his bat that will be the problem.
And all the ‘this is how first base is different from other positions’ arguments in the world don’t change the fact that infielders who play other positions frequently switch to first base and do very well, because first just isn’t that hard to play. I mean, there might be a few players from tough defensive positions like SS, 2B, C and 3B who can’t handle a transition to first — Ryan Doumit might have been one. But in general, I think the amount of fretting about stuff like this (and about Ronny Cedeno’s inexperience at second/third, which we were arguing about a couple weeks ago) is way overblown if you actually look at how players typically do when they slide down the defensive spectrum like that.
I don’t know. Maybe McGehee won’t be good at first. But my guess is that he’ll be fine, at least defensively. He might not hit. That’s the issue, in my mind.
Charlie Wilmoth - January 21, 2012
And I don’t think we should overlook the possibility that Lee’s defense will decline. Last year, we heard a lot of similar arguments about Lyle Overbay steadying the defense. It didn’t turn out that way.
Charlie Wilmoth - January 21, 2012
(WTM said something similar about McGehee’s “glove not being the problem” above. Credit where credit is due.)
Charlie Wilmoth - January 21, 2012
YES.
I don’t understand why so many people are just blithely assuming that the guy who had a 69 OPS+ last year will be an acceptable hitter in 2012.
Vlad - January 22, 2012
While I'm not assuming he will be
I am optimistic that he will be. The reason is that his struggles last year seem so unusual. For one thing, his BAbip dropped more than 50 points from just over .300 (pretty standard) down to .249. Secondly, his reverse platoon split appeared out of nowhere. Prior to 2011, McGehee (a RHB) hit lefties quite well and was ok against RHP. Then last year, his hitting against righties was still ok (.689 OPS isn’t horrible for a platoon player) but against southpaws he had a .413 OPS. Seriously, .413! Pete Gray had a .520 OPS and he had ONE ARM!
While I’m not trying to assume anything, all of this seems odd enough to me that I could see 2011 being a fluke, down year for McGehee.
KentuckyPirate - January 22, 2012
He’s only been in the majors for three years, counting 2011. I don’t think that’s a large enough sample for anything to be “unusual”. And if you want to look at trends, his GB% has been showing a steady increase – mirrored by a corresponding decrease in his isolated power. Guys like him can’t put 50% of their balls in play on the ground and succeed.
The platoon splits were likely an aberration because he’s a RHB and nearly all RHBs regress to a ~1.09 platoon ratio if given enough time. But I don’t see that as evidence of an imminent rebound.
Vlad - January 22, 2012
I wasn't calling them unusual
for him but rather for batters in general. The average BAbip is around .300 (obviously there are exceptions like slow guys who hit a lot of grounders). Also, as you said, most RHB end up with a normal platoon split (not all of them will, of course). I’m not trying to say he’ll wind up raking against lefties but even using the 1.09 platoon ratio and his declining OPS vs. righties would give him a .751 OPS in a platoon with Jones. This wouldn’t be great but it would make him a decent platoon partner with GFJ. This isn’t conclusive evidence that he will rebound but it does give me some confidence that he’ll be ok. Then again, I thought Diaz and Jones would be a great tandem so…
KentuckyPirate - January 22, 2012
Not sure if this is about my earlier comments or not. I wasn’t worried about Cedeno’s ability to transition to another position. I was stating that the “perception” of Cedeno around the league as being “only a shortstop” may have hurt his contract value this year, as opposed to being looked at as a solid “utility infielder.”
I agree with you. When all is said and done, most guys move around the diamond without any problems. I was merely stating that many GM’s (and lots of baseball people in general) base their beliefs/stake their reputations more on what they have seen (or known commodities) than what they believe a veteran “might” do.
In other words, I truly believe that if Cedeno had already been a “super utility infielder” in this league, the demand for him might have been slightly higher this off-season than it was.
I don’t have any concerns that Cedeno wouldn’t be able to play 2nd or 3rd pretty well. I just think that they industry only views him as a shortstop (and, I believe) that won’t change until he actually plays the other positions more often.
impliedi - January 22, 2012
Sorry, that should have been – “might be able to do”.
And with that, I’m talking about playing positions that they haven’t played before (or played very sparingly).
Many GM’s DO make decisions based on what they think a veteran might do (with the bat and on a team.)
impliedi - January 22, 2012
I have literally never heard of this being a problem for a player. Generally, if a player is regarded as a competent shortstop, it’s assumed that he’ll be a capable UT IF, since a competent shortstop will prima facie have the tools needed to succeed at any other infield position.
Vlad - January 22, 2012
Plus, Cedeno has played plenty of 2B
And played it well.
maguro - January 22, 2012
I have literally never heard of this being a problem for a player.
Me either.
Charlie Wilmoth - January 23, 2012
Well, that’s fair. I seriously doubt any team gave that a second thought, but you’re right, that is a slightly different issue.
Charlie Wilmoth - January 23, 2012
Are you saying that two-thirds of the first basemen in the league are unacceptable, because they won’t finish in the top 5 at their position? For that matter, why should we be looking for someone who can play 150+ games at first, when the smart thing to do with the players we have is to platoon them?
As Charlie said above, though first base is not exactly like any other position, players from elsewhere in the infield make successful and relatively smooth transitions to first base all the time. And having a relatively poor defender at first is not as harmful as elsewhere in the field. Groat2Maz2Strangeglove’s name tells us a little about that.
WHYG Zane Smith - January 21, 2012
To your last point, none of our 4 1B options are in the same league as Dick Stuart
As an offensive threat or as entertainment value. That’s why they at least need to bring some leather. No one is going to forgive their defensive problems. BTW, Stuart was my favorite player… 1st game I saw in person was June 7, 1962… he hit a 3 run HR in the bottom of the 9th to beat the Dodgers 3-2. Appreciate Groat2Maz2Strangeglove and you bringing back that memory.
Central*Scrutinizer - January 22, 2012
then the problem is with their bat/entertainment value
But really, based on past performance, Jones has decent offensive production for a 1B against righties, some of the alternatives will probably hit lefties OK, and their defensive problems aren’t so horrid that some other guy would be a huge improvement. The back end of our rotation is a much bigger concern, if we’re looking for a free agent. (I’d like to try Brandon Allen if he’s available cheaply, but that has more to do with the long term.)
As for your point above about the same-handed reliever, you can always bring in the other half of the platoon when the reliever comes in.
WHYG Zane Smith - January 22, 2012
Same situation as Clement. He’d hardly played first at all and everybody was freaking out about his defense. Turned out his defense was fine, better than Jones, but he didn’t hit. If McGehee doesn’t recover from his 2011 collapse, it won’t be his glove we’re talking about.
WTM - January 21, 2012
nailed it
karreemofwheat - January 21, 2012
Your concluding that from 293 total major league innings at 1B?
Not sure if that is a large enough sample to make a conclusion. Would you use that for any of your other conclusions? Again, the issue is whether a player is suitable as an everyday 1Bman, not an emergency replacement.
Central*Scrutinizer - January 21, 2012
McGehee probably won't play first
has it been confirmed and reported that he’s platooning with Jones. IMO Nick Evans is definitely making the team and will definitely be Jones platoon partner at first. Unless Pedro destroys to start the year off McGehee is probably going to get significant playing time at 3B and start almost always against LHP there.
Mingy - January 22, 2012
first sentence was a question
Mingy - January 22, 2012
Neal Huntington has talked about how McGehee could be used at first. I don’t think the Pirates have released their exact plans, presumably because they don’t know what they are yet.
Charlie Wilmoth - January 22, 2012
i think it's totally reasonable to expect Evans makes the club
I will be shocked and disappointed if he doesnt. If it was me i’d platoon McGehee with Alvarez and Nick Evans with Jones. Evans is legit. I might even be tempted to say he should pretty much play every day. I think his glove is outstanding and yes not as good a hitter against RHP as Jones but i think Jones should be used sparingly because Evans is still young (just turned 26) and could potentially be a 1B of the future! Big Evans fan
Mingy - January 22, 2012
in about 200 career ML ABs
Evans has an .849 OPS. it’s a SSS but that’d DEFINITELY be acceptable along with his great glove work. amiright?
Mingy - January 22, 2012
whoops
that was against LHP. 200 ML ABs against LHP
Mingy - January 22, 2012
I think Alvarez is either the everyday starter in Pittsburgh or Indy. I don’t see a platoon happening.
impliedi - January 22, 2012
And God help the Pirates, if it's the latter.
impliedi - January 22, 2012
I seriously doubt the Pirates will call it a platoon or think of it as one, but I could see a situation where McGehee got some starts at third against lefties simply to give Alvarez days off on days where he’d face tough matchups.
Charlie Wilmoth - January 23, 2012
that’s exactly what i meant. Pedro SHOULD and probably will sit against tough lefties. Now if it’s Paul Maholm and the Cubbies up there, i think Pedro should take him to the river haha. Any lefty with stuff Pedro should probably sit until he’s got good numbers and confidence
Mingy - January 23, 2012
Huh
Where you get hague’s defense is bad?
schlep - January 21, 2012 via mobile
Error machine was the term I used.
15 errors in 1121 chances. Overbay had 8 in 994. Everyone thought Overbay sucked. Ergo…
Central*Scrutinizer - January 21, 2012
oops
Derek lee career minor league fielding % .989 hague .991
schlep - January 22, 2012 via mobile
More oops
Overlay career minor fielding %%. 986
schlep - January 22, 2012 via mobile
Oops oops oops
Garrett Jones career minor league fielding %% 1B .988
schlep - January 22, 2012 via mobile
Minor league fields and scorekeeping
Gotta compare apples to apples. Scorekeeper can be a little crazy in minors. Saw one error charged to hague this were the throw pulled him off bag and up the line he snagged it and swipe tagged the guy on helmet and ball came out. Another were he dove over tarp sitting on field ball hit his mitt and they gave him an error
schlep - January 22, 2012 via mobile
Minor league fields and scorekeeping
Gotta compare apples to apples. Scorekeeper can be a little crazy in minors. Saw one error charged to hague this were the throw pulled him off bag and up the line he snagged it and swipe tagged the guy on helmet and ball came out. Another were he dove over tarp sitting on field ball hit his mitt and they gave him an error
schlep - January 22, 2012 via mobile
On offense. I don’t recall much discussion of his D, other than a perception that he’d slipped from the days when he was regarded as a top defender at the position.
Vlad - January 22, 2012
this is pretty much accurate in Overbay's assesment
white angus - January 22, 2012
I remember a lot of discussion of his below average D
As his errors and fielding whiffs piled up in the June/July timeframe. No range was another constant complaint. My comments that he could be a late inning D replacement were universally panned, which is why I recall.
Central*Scrutinizer - January 22, 2012
errors dont mean much to me
there’s far better fielding metrics than that
Mingy - January 22, 2012
Or scouting reports like
http://players.piratesprospects.com/2010/02/matt-hague.html
Central*Scrutinizer - January 22, 2012
Minor tweeking....
These minor offseason tweeks will not make the Bucs relevant in October…we need lumber.
oldjoe - January 21, 2012
One piece of lumber....coming up....(actually, if this lumber doesn't show up, none of it's going to matter anyway)
impliedi - January 21, 2012
Dear Pedro
Please have an enormous breakout season in 2012.
CO_Bucs - January 21, 2012
PS
…. and get a hat that fits.
NW Pirate fan - January 21, 2012
That's it !
Pedro’s hat is too tight; thus restricting blood flow to his brain, and slowing his reaction time in adjusting to the curveball’s trajectory. We’ve solved the problem !
michaelbro8 - January 21, 2012
Sabermetrics at its best
maguro - January 21, 2012
maybe Pedro cant hear the curveballs coming.
white angus - January 22, 2012
I'll do you all a favour
and not pick him on my FB team this season. That should mean I’ll not jinx it like I did last year.
(sorry.)
BlindSquirrel - January 22, 2012
Surprised that no one has made a thread whining about us not trading for Scutaro yet. I mean, they only got a middling SP that is probably AAA depth for them.
pskell02 - January 22, 2012
well, get to it, son
white angus - January 22, 2012
I have not intentions on doing it
As you probably read in the Rizzo thread, I loath those type of conversations that start with “Why didn’t we” or “We could have done better than.”
pskell02 - January 22, 2012
erase, erase
white angus - January 22, 2012
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