Tried posting this a bit ago as they were announcing the lower number guys. Aparently it didn’t work. I’m happy to see where they have guys. Was real surprised that they had Marte at 40. Thats the highest I’ve seen him ranked by anyone. Slightly disappointed to not see Grossman on there though.
Was real surprised that they had Marte at 40… Slightly disappointed to not see Grossman on there though.
I think that says more about the criteria being used by the analyst than anything else. A guy who really really likes Marte’s tools isn’t going to be impressed by Grossman’s relatively pedestrian ones, and a guy who likes Grossman’s solid statistical profile is going to be worried about the couple of flaws in Marte’s.
I think that at this point, I’d take Marte over Grossman, since Marte plays the more difficult defensive position and is a year closer to the majors. They’re both very good prospects, though.
You can look at a guy like Heredia and think, “Wow, he projects to being amazing in 5 years”, or you can think, “Who the hell knows what will happen to a pitcher between 17 and 22?”
Not saying that no one would rank him highly, just that I understand why any given analyst might not.
There’s still plenty of time to rank him and look smart.
That said, high draft batters succeed much, much more often than high draft pitchers (which Heredia effectively is; if he’d gone to HS in the States, he’d have been a first rounder, probably top 10 overall).
It’s not just development; it’s also likelihood of injury.
I’m not sure about the likelihood of injury playing into it — Taillon is #8 with some likelihood of injury. In reality, Taillon has probably thrown more pitches the past 3 seasons than Heredia has.
I look at Heredia this way: he was an international signing that really has not been seen playing against any level of competition. He effectively worked out in “showcases” before we signed him, and had a very short leash on him at that time.
I do agree with your comment about playing in a HS here — tying into Vlad’s comment below — he would have been seen by many more scouts in both game and “showcase” environments, and could very well be somewhere on this list if that were the case.
But I do suspect that a shortstop with Heredia-like talent and a Heredia-like background would have made the Top 100 – I think it’s easier to talk yourself into a position player making it while you can talk yourself into a pitcher failing. Benefit of the doubt.
If he were a Mets or Yankees prospect he would be on this list. I’m fine with him flying under the radar for a year or two. The over-hype that comes with New York doesn’t usually end well.
I could get all excited about Marte, but Cutch was a productive hitter in the Show when he was 22, so these people should know what a Cutch-like talent looks like. And if there really were another Cutch in the system, well, it’s not like Alex Presley should be holding him back.
is not a problem. Just because Cutch was in the bigs at 22 doesn’t mean every elite young player is. Jacoby Ellsbury wasn’t a ML starter until he was 24. I also don’t think AP is “holding him back” but Marte hasn’t played in AAA yet. Before they put him in the majors, shouldn’t he at least get 1 AAA AB?
To me, at least. Ellsbury wasn’t a regular until 24, but he had 3 years of college (possibly the most entertaining CWS ever) and another 3 years of MiLB under his belt by then. Marte signed younger, but was coming out of the DR. No cup of coffee this year followed by no real threat next year would start concern about Marte for me…. and I think that’s unlikely.
wasn’t a perfect comparison by any means, he was just the 1st CF that came to mind. Yeah, if we don’t see him at all this year and/or nobody thinks he might crack the opening day 25 in 2013, then I will at least pause. However, if it happens that way, I’ll be more concerned that he didn’t hit well in Indy because the only way this happens is if he struggles for the Indians. If he hits like he has since arriving in the states (especially with last year’s power surge) he’ll be in Pittsburgh some time this season.
Taillon > Cole
Marte > Bell
Marte in the top 50 where he should be.
That aside, it just feels good to see 2 guys in the top 11 and 4 in the top 70. Especially since I expect 5 or more in the top 100 next year. Marte or Bell will have to crash and burn or our #8 selection will have to miss the top 100 for that not to happen.
I will use this opportunity to inform everyone that I am now writing for Seedlings to Stars over at Fansided. It won’t take away from me participating in this community or from my work at Buried Treasure, so don’t worry! My first article should be out today or tomorrow.
On Buried Treasure, I have a few things in the pipeline, including my #8 guy Jarek Cunningham and why I think the Pirates shouldn’t trade Cutch.
Who cares? Not anyone really! But thanks SuperBaes!
Tried posting this a bit ago as they were announcing the lower number guys. Aparently it didn’t work. I’m happy to see where they have guys. Was real surprised that they had Marte at 40. Thats the highest I’ve seen him ranked by anyone. Slightly disappointed to not see Grossman on there though.
pskell02 - January 25, 2012
Same here, thought Grossman would be on there
But the pirates ranked 3rd overall in the points rankings for the top 100… Pretty good to me.
BigB2323 - January 25, 2012
I think that says more about the criteria being used by the analyst than anything else. A guy who really really likes Marte’s tools isn’t going to be impressed by Grossman’s relatively pedestrian ones, and a guy who likes Grossman’s solid statistical profile is going to be worried about the couple of flaws in Marte’s.
Vlad - January 26, 2012
Do you believe the same is true in how they rank pitchers? Taillon’s tools > Cole’s tools?
Kev S - January 26, 2012
I think
Cole’s rankings could be higher if he didn’t have his tits ripped in the AFL All-Star game.
With maturity and coaching, he will learn to back off when wanting to overthrow and stay within himself.
They both have some pretty damn nice tools, and having 2 guys in the top 11 is spectacular.
And for the record, love having anyone ranked #69.
insane_sanity - January 26, 2012
Bell makes sense at 69
No doubt he is a sexy prospect
Raybin - January 26, 2012
yep... wrecked!
white angus - January 26, 2012
having a switch hitter at #69 would be better if the team were in Vermont
white angus - January 26, 2012
Excellent point
And we’ve seen that split in discussions here.
To be clear, I think they’re both going to be better than Barry Bonds. Juiced Barry Bonds.
Take it to the bank.
JRoth95 - January 26, 2012
PS
Not really.
JRoth95 - January 26, 2012
Too
late. I drove to the bank in that minute and made a deposit.
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 26, 2012
good thing
that we put that security film on the windows; no jumping out for you!
BlindSquirrel - January 26, 2012
your opinion
looking at the total package, would you say that Marte’s (tools + statistical profile) > Grossman’s (tools + statistical profile)?
If Grossman puts up 80 – 85% of his 2011 numbers in Altoona in 2012…he ends up on this list next season.
insane_sanity - January 26, 2012
I think that at this point, I’d take Marte over Grossman, since Marte plays the more difficult defensive position and is a year closer to the majors. They’re both very good prospects, though.
Vlad - January 26, 2012
surprised to not see Luis Heredia on here
BA must think Grossman will be a one year wonder.
BadAndy - January 26, 2012 via mobile
Probably too young
You can look at a guy like Heredia and think, “Wow, he projects to being amazing in 5 years”, or you can think, “Who the hell knows what will happen to a pitcher between 17 and 22?”
Not saying that no one would rank him highly, just that I understand why any given analyst might not.
There’s still plenty of time to rank him and look smart.
JRoth95 - January 26, 2012
Agreed
If there was a list on hypothetical “ceilings”, a Heredia argument could be made. As it stands, he has much to prove and a lot of room to grow.
insane_sanity - January 26, 2012
Couldn’t we also say that about Bell, since his next professional at bat will be his first?
Thunder - January 26, 2012
I was surprised to see him so high
That said, high draft batters succeed much, much more often than high draft pitchers (which Heredia effectively is; if he’d gone to HS in the States, he’d have been a first rounder, probably top 10 overall).
It’s not just development; it’s also likelihood of injury.
JRoth95 - January 26, 2012
I’m not sure about the likelihood of injury playing into it — Taillon is #8 with some likelihood of injury. In reality, Taillon has probably thrown more pitches the past 3 seasons than Heredia has.
I look at Heredia this way: he was an international signing that really has not been seen playing against any level of competition. He effectively worked out in “showcases” before we signed him, and had a very short leash on him at that time.
I do agree with your comment about playing in a HS here — tying into Vlad’s comment below — he would have been seen by many more scouts in both game and “showcase” environments, and could very well be somewhere on this list if that were the case.
insane_sanity - January 26, 2012
Fair points
But I do suspect that a shortstop with Heredia-like talent and a Heredia-like background would have made the Top 100 – I think it’s easier to talk yourself into a position player making it while you can talk yourself into a pitcher failing. Benefit of the doubt.
JRoth95 - January 26, 2012
He
also had really crappy numbers. In context, who cares, but they were pretty dang crappy.
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 26, 2012
Bell played in front of a lot more scouts last year than Heredia did.
Vlad - January 26, 2012
Heredia
If he were a Mets or Yankees prospect he would be on this list. I’m fine with him flying under the radar for a year or two. The over-hype that comes with New York doesn’t usually end well.
ballparkfranks - January 26, 2012
Is Brandon Nimmo on the list?
bolton - January 27, 2012
Damn
I forgot to set the DVR for the MLB Network special. Oh well, I’m sure they’ll replay it many times.
King Oskar - January 26, 2012
It's on again today
at 2:30 EST
KentuckyPirate - January 26, 2012
Or
streaming online I believe.
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 26, 2012
I wonder how many lists will have Moore over Harper?
Cheap Beer - January 26, 2012
damn, thats a good question
white angus - January 26, 2012
Mine!
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 26, 2012
I wish
I could get all excited about Marte, but Cutch was a productive hitter in the Show when he was 22, so these people should know what a Cutch-like talent looks like. And if there really were another Cutch in the system, well, it’s not like Alex Presley should be holding him back.
bucdaddy - January 26, 2012
Marte's age
is not a problem. Just because Cutch was in the bigs at 22 doesn’t mean every elite young player is. Jacoby Ellsbury wasn’t a ML starter until he was 24. I also don’t think AP is “holding him back” but Marte hasn’t played in AAA yet. Before they put him in the majors, shouldn’t he at least get 1 AAA AB?
KentuckyPirate - January 26, 2012
More about time in the minors
To me, at least. Ellsbury wasn’t a regular until 24, but he had 3 years of college (possibly the most entertaining CWS ever) and another 3 years of MiLB under his belt by then. Marte signed younger, but was coming out of the DR. No cup of coffee this year followed by no real threat next year would start concern about Marte for me…. and I think that’s unlikely.
SuperBaes - January 26, 2012
Ellsbury
wasn’t a perfect comparison by any means, he was just the 1st CF that came to mind. Yeah, if we don’t see him at all this year and/or nobody thinks he might crack the opening day 25 in 2013, then I will at least pause. However, if it happens that way, I’ll be more concerned that he didn’t hit well in Indy because the only way this happens is if he struggles for the Indians. If he hits like he has since arriving in the states (especially with last year’s power surge) he’ll be in Pittsburgh some time this season.
KentuckyPirate - January 26, 2012
Injuries also played a role for Marte
Mr. E - January 27, 2012
Neyer's reaction
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/26/2735935/scariest-pitcher-face-ever
Aphthakid - January 26, 2012
Love
this list for 3 reasons.. WHITE ANGUS!
Taillon > Cole
Marte > Bell
Marte in the top 50 where he should be.
That aside, it just feels good to see 2 guys in the top 11 and 4 in the top 70. Especially since I expect 5 or more in the top 100 next year. Marte or Bell will have to crash and burn or our #8 selection will have to miss the top 100 for that not to happen.
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 26, 2012
I wonder where I can read more on Pirates prospects, like #9 Jeff Locke?
SuperBaes - January 26, 2012
you ungrateful futhermucker!
j/k
white angus - January 26, 2012
<3
the logo
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 26, 2012
oh, by the way, Pirates Prospects said that Baseball America has their top systems ranked...
Pirates came in at #13… but more importantly stated that all 4 writers on their site
have cole OVER taillon…
dont know about Marte and Bell though.
white angus - January 26, 2012
actually Wilbur reported that story
white angus - January 26, 2012
That’s out first year in a long time that they have us in the top half of the league.
Vlad - January 27, 2012
Marte might be called up this year
and accumulate enough AB be ineligible for next year’s list
gonfalon - January 26, 2012
nahhhhhhh
we’re punting this year. we’ll screw Marte over because hes not one of NH’s guys. the “pearce effect” will be in play.
white angus - January 27, 2012
Uh
Piratesprosects.com?
If that’s a shot that it’s been a while since I’ve updated.. I’m sorry. I fail :(
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 26, 2012
oops
reply fail too.
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 26, 2012
I was setting you up for a shameless plug.
SuperBaes - January 26, 2012
Oh
well I’m still at #9 lol.
I will use this opportunity to inform everyone that I am now writing for Seedlings to Stars over at Fansided. It won’t take away from me participating in this community or from my work at Buried Treasure, so don’t worry! My first article should be out today or tomorrow.
On Buried Treasure, I have a few things in the pipeline, including my #8 guy Jarek Cunningham and why I think the Pirates shouldn’t trade Cutch.
Who cares? Not anyone really! But thanks SuperBaes!
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 26, 2012
Please use this opportunity to let Fansided know that their blog platform blows nuts and is way to friggin slow.
And get to work on your prospect write-ups. Gives me something to do other than actually work during the day.
pskell02 - January 26, 2012
hey, mccutchenisthetruth's got a groupie
well done
white angus - January 26, 2012
Lol
thanks pskell02. I’ll pass on the message.
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 26, 2012
Taillon...
Even Rob Neyer recognizes the fierceness.
cocktailsfor2 - January 26, 2012
outstanding
MLB.com also ranked them in the same order I’d have them
gonfalon - January 26, 2012
I have
Heredia at 4, almost me too!
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 27, 2012
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