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A.J. Burnett Trade 'At Impasse'

Ken Rosenthal has the latest on the A.J. Burnett situation. He notes that the Yankees want a deal to be made by Saturday, which is a day before their Spring Training begins. He describes talks between that Yankees and Pirates as being "at an impasse," but notes that the Pirates are really the only serious contender for Burnett at this point. The Angels might have been another possibility, but they're on Burnett's no-trade list, and Burnett would not approve a trade there. (Hooray for Burnett's wife, I guess.)

It sounds like we may have a stalemate for a couple more days, but I don't see too much incentive for the Bucs to budge.

-P- Also, the Pirates signed third baseman David Valesente out of independent ball. WTM thinks he could start the season at Bradenton. Players like this are generally organizational guys.

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Comments

Just now

I saw 1 update each in my PBC Blog and DK RSS feeds, and I thought, “This must be it!” But no: Jones arbitration hearing and a post for tonight’s Pens game.

Oh well.

Sign whatever scrub dh the Yanks want, and then trade him straight up for Burnett and salary.

Then the Yanks can claim they got who they wanted all along.

I’m truly surprised the Yankees are trying so hard to improve this deal. Given what a disappointment Burnett’s been in NY, I figured they’d be thanking their lucky stars that we would be willing to take over 1/3 of his contract and throw in a couple random prospects to boot.

Shoot, man...

Where you been?

At rehearsal.

And that’s a different report, isn’t it?

Oh, you

and your band commitments… Pfft.

Dunno, didn’t check your link – mine’s from Rosenthal / FOX this a.m.

P.S. Charlie: go buy this and let me know what you think.

Oh hey

WYEP played some band that actually made me think of yoursª, Charlie. Of course I wasn’t actually paying attention to who it was. Anyhoo….

ª or at least the one track from your band that I have

You should get them all.

“Glory Glory Hallelujah” is really good.

Aw, thanks, y’all.

hmmm

sounds dead

Did you

read more than the title?

dont feed the troll
worth a gamble

say the yanks keep him he pitches all right , for 8 million spent in salary for the first half 2012 they may get 10 million and some real prospects and 3or 4 month of aj burrnett.

“read” is not on sweetleb’s “words he can associate with noises” list.

there is where i get upset about money

i like to say that why do we care how much the pirates pay for a player, its not our money to spend. so is this a case of the Pirates having a budget and not wanting to go over said budget? If were willing to go up to 10M, why not go to 12-13M? Obviously 2-3M more is nothing to sneeze at, but for what its worth, I think the Pirates should/could afford the extra few Mil here

perhaps

The issue is on the"prospect" side and not the money side?

Gamesmanship

This feels more like the Yankees knowing that they likely can’t get more, but they also know that the Pirates, their fans and local media are paying attention to this trade which may be leading them to slow down and leak to the media that talks are at an “impasse” in the hopes that NH blinks and gives up a little more.

It doesnt appear that NH is blinking at this point which is good. I suspect that a deal will be struck late tomorrow or Friday.

That's what Tim's source said
i hope his source isn't sweetleb.
I hope it is

I’d love for that to be wrong. I would rather it be a money issue

Way

the Yankees are gonna trade Burnett no matter what the way I see it. If we are willing to give up the money they want, they will eventually take that for 2 non-prospects.

Heard Dejan on the radio a few minutes ago

Said this is what happens when the Yankees know they have their backs against the wall in a potential deal. They are so connected to the national baseball media and like to use that to just keep throwing things out there about other teams being involved, not wanting to trade him, etc. Said the deal will happen, the Pirates won’t give up anything interesting, and it’s just a matter of waiting it out. He believes the Pirates are playing it perfectly and it’s just a matter of waiting it out.

Yeah, that is what I was trying to say but you said it better...
3 more days of this crap?

good thing I’m going out of town

Oh well.
Go Pens.

man....

this makes me hate the Yankees even more if the above is true…..

The Bucs Need to Step Up

and sweeten the pot a bit and toss David Valesente’s name into the mix. Hell no one has ever heard of the guy so Cashman can say THIS was the guy we were holding out for. Give him 1 year in the Yankee publicity machine and he will be on BA’s top 100 list.

I'm seeing this on tomorrow's ESPN NY

Ten Twelve million ain’t gonna get it done,” said the Yankees source, referring to the amount of Burnett’s salary the Pirates have agreed to pay. “Not unless we get top-level prospects—or somebody from the Pecos League.”

The Pirates’ newly-acquired prospect, third baseman David Valesente, is not among the players being offered in the deal.

On a side note:

Anyone else surprised Jones & McGehee going to arbitration , being the two sides being so close in dollars ?

Neal’s “internal value” getting in the way of common sense??

Could be

Ot NH is extremely confident he’ll win both cases , which I don’t see happening

Ot = Or
My fingers are too big for IPhone

IMO the team loses as soon as they go to arbitration even if they “win”. It damages the player relationship.

especially for such small amounts

250 k for jones

Meh

I’m not all that worried about the relationship with Jones. I’m hoping to see them end that relationship some time in the near future.

Eh I don't think so

all signs seem to indicate players rarely take it personally if ever.

and this

was over $250k.

I understand Nutting is cheap and all, and it was a BAD season on the slopes, but I think the smear campaign is much more subdued over $250k than it is over millions of dollars.

Did I mention that this was a poor ski season, though….

I like internal value

Every team in baseball has an “internal value” on players. I’ve never understood why so many people get upset at the concept that you should know how much you’re willing to pay for something before you go out to buy it.

The problem I’ve had with it is that they seem to set the valuation too low and adhere to it too rigidly.

Ding! Ding!

Arbitration with Jones over $250k is simply ridiculous. Hell, there’s direct costs associated simply with going to arbitration, so the maximum savings are less than $250k. And what’s the upside, other than saving a fraction of a Ciriaco? Bragging rights at the next Winter Meetings? Convincing your players that you’re both cheap and bull-headed? What a win this could be!

The upside is saving a larger amount of money in arbitration after next season.

Aw, c'mon

We all know that the chances of Jones being tendered for 2013 are only a bit better than the chances for one of us. Whatever his salary in 2012, he’ll be approaching $4M for 2013, which is way, way too much for half of a mediocre 1B platoon and/or a bench bat. And that’s without mentioning his age.

I’m fairly pro-Jones, but I think that a $3.75M contract would be close to the most value he could ever provide. And it’s very dumb to sign contracts where the best case is breaking even.

We all know that the chances of Jones being tendered for 2013 are only a bit better than the chances for one of us.

It depends what he does this year. I don’t expect him to bust out and put up an OPS+ in the 140s, but to be fair I didn’t expect it the first time he did it, either. At this point, it seems unlikely that the team will tender him next year, but in the event that he plays well enough for it to make sense, it’s good that they took steps to protect themselves financially.

And of course, the lower his salary in 2012, the lower the bar his performance needs to clear in 2012 in order for a return engagement to make sense.

I did think about that last bit

Trouble is twofold. One, assuming the rule of thumb 40-60-80, he’ll get roughly a 50% raise next year, assuming consistent performance; that would translate to $250k this year meaning ~$375k next year – less than 1/10 of a win in terms of value, less than a replacement level player in terms of salary. Not nothing, but close. Fewer than 10,000 marginal fans.

Two, if he breaks out next year, that $250k difference in this year’s salary will become a rounding error – he’ll bump up close to, I don’t know, $4.5 or $5M. Whether the base salary is $2.25M or $2.5M won’t really change how the arbitrators view the value of a guy who just put up a 3 WAR season (OK, they don’t care WAR – they’ll see .275/.360/.550 with 32 HRs, and that’ll be that).

You add $250k this year to $375k next year, and you’re talking about some real money, more than half a mill. Not to mention the possibility that they’d bring him back for 2014 as well…

Ah, good point about the adding up
Which is fine.

But that’s not actually what most of the people doing the complaining complain about. They mock the very concept of “internal value”.

Depending on how they determine it, it might be mock-worthy. I’ve been concerned all along that they define it in terms of the dollar value of a win, like roto-type sites do. The problem comes when you’re looking for veteran players and you’ve got some calculation saying that a win costs $_M. When you’re looking at the entire range of ML players, the cost of a win is understated relative to the market for veterans because the salaries of 0-6 players are artificially inhibited and the salaries of 6+ players are artificially inflated. Everybody’s first choice is to add wins through 0-6 players, but once that source becomes unavailable, as it often is, you have to pay more than the dollar value of a win. IOW, you have to accept the fact that the market sets the prices and if they exceed your value calculation, you either accept the market price or simply choose not to win.

I don’t pay enough attention to valuation systems to know whether they take this into account, but having watched this FO all this time, I’m skeptical whether they do, at least to a sufficient degree. That’s also why I have little use for arguments like, “AJ Burnett isn’t worth $13M.” Very few 6+ players are “worth” what they get paid. That’s not the pertinent question. Burnett may only be worth, say, $8M over two years, but the equivalent talent isn’t available to the Pirates for $8M. The correct question is, How far can you go in improving your ballclub with the resources you have?

Depending on how they determine it, it might be mock-worthy.

Again, though, that’s not a problem with the concept of “internal value”. That’s a problem with the execution of that concept (assuming, for the sake of argument, that they’re determining their values the way that you speculate that they are), and possibly, by extension, the management-level strategic decisions that have been made about appropriate levels of profit and revenue projections and such.

They mock the very concept

because of the way they’ve seen it applied. I don’t think it was mocked the first time it came up; it certainly wasn’t widely mocked.

If NH had convinced us all that “internal value” had led him never to sign a dumb contract or never to release valuable assets, then no one would mock it. Hell, this winter has looked pretty good for internal value (although I gotta say that the word collusion has come to mind regarding Maholm, EJax, and some of the other productive players getting really below-value contracts), but unfortunately it came after the Overbay and Capps decisions, both big failures for “internal value.”

They mock the very concept because of the way they’ve seen it applied.

Then they’re dumb for mocking the concept rather than the execution. Fans didn’t give up on statistical projections of players’ future performance just because Dave Littlefield’s computer told him that Tike Redman should bat third. Why should this be any different?

Because the concept is the phrase

and the phrase is NH’s. What I’m saying is that no one ever said (over and over) “internal value” around the Pirates until NH came along, so the concept, as embodied by that phrase, is tied to him and his performance.

If DL had come in and proclaimed himself a seamhead and talked constantly of advanced statistics, and then proceeded to make all the same decisions he did in real life, those phrases in particular, and the concepts behind them more generally, would be discredited among the fan base. That’s just how things go. Early flat roofs were leaky, and so a lot of people are still scared of them, long after they’ve been proven reliable when designed and installed correctly, First impressions matter.

If DL had come in and proclaimed himself a seamhead and talked constantly of advanced statistics, and then proceeded to make all the same decisions he did in real life, those phrases in particular, and the concepts behind them more generally, would be discredited among the fan base.

Which is stupid, and bad reasoning. Hence my motivation in pushing back against the mockery of the concept of “internal value”. If you think that the team should be willing to spend money less efficiently in order to attract more talent, or that the team does not do a good job of setting internal values, then just say that. Don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater.

I agree with you 100%

any mocking I have done in the past over “internal value” has been on the supposed calculation of it.

I believe that every FO adheres to some type of “internal value” calculation on players. Some may be very conservative, some may be very generous, and other may just suck.

and that said

I feel, at least hearing seeing what we paid for Barajas and Barmes, coupled with the 3-year offer to E. Jackson, the FO has changed their calculation of “internal value” somewhat.

+1

Everyone has number in their head when they go to buy a car. That’s internal value. What’s so wrong with that?

And when you're taking the bus home from the dealer

you have to ask, who won the day?

Probably the guy that didn’t overpay on the car.

Depends on whether or not you got to watch a fight on the bus.

when I was in college I worked at Elby's Big Boy

and because I was in school I always worked evening until closing. Employees had a 50% discount on food (so frequently I would order two steaks, for the price of one). Left over pies were thrown in the garbage at the end of the night. We got a new manager and when we were ready to go home one night I told him I’d give him $1 for a pie. He insisted he could not, that 50% of $5 was $2.50, that was the employee price for a pie. I tried to convince him that if he did not take my $1, he would lose money for the company because otherwise the pie was going straight to the trash. $1 was less than $2.50, but certainly more than $0. He refused to be swayed, and I let him throw that pie away, going home with the $1 in my pocket. I don’t recall that he ever figured it out.

Some people have no imagination
It's never happened, so I guess I've always won.

Negotiation is a major part of my job. I’ve learned it’s important to establish the value of things, not let the other guy anchor the price, ignore his attempts to do so (which means believing in my internal valuing over the his), and to be willing to walk away.

Fair enough

I guess the point is that you need to have a realistic valuation – if every car dealer is telling you No, then perhaps you value isn’t calibrated. It’s also possible, of course, that you’re correctly deciding that a car isn’t worth having, and so the bus and walking and biking is a viable alternative.

I think that, in this analogy, Kevin Correia is a bus. Or possibly your dad’s old beater that he’ll lend you, but you have to start it facing downhill.

I think it’s more a matter of the one player’s value being tied to the other’s as a comparable for the arb process. Makes it difficult to arrive at an independent valuation

I think Veras did this with the Brewers

I remember them being like, maybe a couple hundred thousand apart, and I thought it was strange that they’d even bother going to arbitration. Sounds like an unnecessary reason to wear a suit when you’re that close together.

“Sounds like an unnecessary reason to wear a suit when you’re that close together.”
I like the phrasing

Tweet Update

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/27210/yankees-optimistic-on-a-j-deal

Not necessarily to the Pirates…

Meh

that’s the same crack reporter who “broke” the story that Cole won’t be part of the deal. The Hafner deal is also off the table. We’re in the same position we’ve been in for days now…wait and see. UGH!

Cole

He isn’t even eligible to be traded. Someone should call out that reporter for lack of knowledge regarding trades.

Impressively enough, the fact that he isn’t even eligible is probably the LEAST idiotic aspect of mentioning his name in the trade talks. It’s mind-boggingly stupid to even suggest that anyone would give up their best prospect for an almost retired A.J. Burnett and his huge salary.

I'll give them

A.J Cole. Can we do that?

Technically I think he could be traded as a PTBNL — it’s juuust over six months since he signed.

yeah

I suppose after Feb 15 he could be traded. I didn’t realize it was within 6 months already. But, as Superstar stated there are other reasons that it was mind-boggling stupid.

Yesterday I read some comments after an ESPN article, and the Yankee fans were trying to choose between taking Hafner from the Indians or taking a package of Hughes, McPhearson, and Mercer from the Pirates. Those are likely to be some pretty disappointed fans when this goes down.

hahahahahahahahaha!

(boy, am i going to look stupid if that package does actually happen)

Holy

Crap KP, you weren’t joking..

Wow

Nope

I bow down to ESPN New York and their “inside sources.” How could any of us ever hope to know as much as some of these professionals do?

It seems

like the Yankees are trying to put more than a little pressure on NH with all of these “leaks”. Cashman likely feels that the Bucs need to make this deal more than the Yankees do and IMO, they do. That said if the Yankees are truly looking for a legit top ten prospect NH needs to stick to his guns and just say no.

What a freaking soap opera
It's the Yankees!

Of course it is a soap opera if the Yankees and their fnas plus the media is involved.

I hope we get this done w/o giving up any real prospects.

You have to wonder

If the Nady trade is in the back of Cashman’s mind. I’m not saying that this is the hold up but the thought must have crossed his mind that he can’t let NH clean his clock a second time. The GM fraternity is a small one and there has to be just a little bit of ego involved in these things.

Dámaso Marté

and his shoulder also says ‘hi.’

meh

I would like to have Tabata back, but I didn’t lose sleep over the trade. Marte really helped with the 2009 World Series too. Karstens, Ohlendorf and McCutchen couldn’t crack the Yankees pitching so it’s no loss to us. I’m just glad they’re getting the chance to play at the major league level.

Good point

+1 for you

I was thinking the same thing

I don’t know how much heat Cashman took in the press for that crapper of a deal (from the yanks perspective), but he might be a little gun shy about doing it again

You also

have to wonder if the word has come down from Hank: “You better not just give this guy away!” The Yankees likely view the Pirates as one of baseball’s welfare recipients and might be loath to give them what the owners might consider to be another hand out.

Geez, I gotta get a life. I’m dwelling too much on this. The last time I checked its A.J. Burnett not Ron Guidry we are talking about.

Dunno judging from the Pirate interwebs, AJ Burnett is either Cy Young Incarnate or Matt Morris the 2nd?

Good luck. We’re all counting on you

Impasse my Asse
Poll question

Who arrives in Pittsburgh first?

1. A.J. Burnett
2. Luis Heredia

yanks are apparently big in on jorge soler

bet they’d like to have a couple million more to throw at him. doesn’t look like a minor league deal will get it done so it would have to come out the ML payroll.

I'd prefer Bucs keep the money and try to get Soler with it

long term upside > short term risk

if its gonna be a ML deal

i m happy to let the Yanks get him :) I have a feeling all of these guys are busts waiting to happen…

I really don't want Soler for the money being thrown around

I’m hearing the Cubs will go $27M which is absurd for a guy that’s going to spend the next two years in the minor leagues. I didn’t see those figures until after Cespedes signed but if I had knows that, I would much much much rather have signed Cespedes. Assuming both wind up being 4-year deals, would you rather pay Cespedes $9M/year for playing in the majors or Soler (the lesser of the two players by all accounts I’ve seen) $7M to spend 2 years in the minors and then for his first two years in the majors at age 21/22 (assuming he moves quickly)? The benefit of Soler is that he will apparently go to arbitration after his deal ends, whereas Cespedes becomes a FA but Soler will still be crazy expensive. If he’s making $7M, he won’t be a midseason callup, he’d be up as soon as he’s ready. That means he’d likely be a Super-2. That means he’ll have 4 years of arbitration where his STARTING point is $7M! Have fun, Theo…

Knowing Cashman

Like people have said the Yankees use the media. I think they’re just using the Pirates to get that second team to boost their offer. I don’t think the Pirates will get AJ, which you should all thank God for. He’ll probably end up with a team like the Tigers, Royals or something like that. A team that hasn’t been talked about much cause whenever a trade between the Yankees and another team gets beat to death it doesn’t happen. You’ll hear like the mystery team came in at the 11th hour on ESPN. Just watch

I don't think there really is a second team

Ya know, it’s times like this that I’m glad NH seems completely tone-deaf to public opinion. I don’t think trying to pressure him through the media is going to get anywhere.

I think it’s time for NH to start calling other teams about other pitchers and talk to remaining free agents.

"I think it’s time for NH to start calling other teams about other pitchers and talk to remaining free agents."

Just throwing this out there, so don’t kill me. How about Wandy in Houston? Get Houston to eat a portion of the remaining $$ owed, give up a couple prospects….I mean, after all, they were pretty close to giving up 3/30+ for Jackson.

eh

if I’m not mistaken Houston was asking for a fairly significant haul for Rodriguez…probably more than I would be willing to part with.

yes, and money had little to do with it

they wanted prospects, really good ones.

The latest via mlbtr

An NY reporter, David Waldstein, says there’s two teams, Pirates and an unidentified team one of who will get Burnett, and neither is blocked via the restrictions in AJ’s contract.

If the mystery team does, in fact, exist, is anyone else thinking Brewers?

Cashman was restless he was ready to trade

He jumped out the window cause he couldn’t get a deal made.
Huntington was waiting with a safety net.
He said “Don’t bury me cause I’m not dead yet”.

[Chorus:]
Why don’t you tell me ‘bout the mystery team?
I wanna know about the mystery team.
Why don’t we deal
‘cause I’ve tried and I’ve tried,
and I’m still mystified.
I can’t do it anymore and I’m not satisfied.
I can’t do it anymore and I’m not satisfied.

the same unidentified team that was behind the grassy knoll
The J Edgars?

an independent team from Hoover, Alabama?

There's nobody else

It’s just NH and Cashman toe to toe, waiting for the other guy to blink.

they were first mentioned a week ago

The Brewers are already over budget.

It must be frustrating to be a fan of The Mystery Team

They’re in on everyone but they never actually get any players. Or play any games. And they have to put up with that insufferable Scrappy Doo.

In on everyone, but never actually get any players?

The mystery team is the Pirates! I knew we were bidding against ourselves…

The mystery team

has had a great offseason this year. Pujols, Fielder, Cespenes. Anyone else I’m forgetting?

They are also the frontrunner for Oswalt and Lee cause no one seems to know what the hell is going on with them.

Those guys are joining Jermaine Dye’s Gigantic Egos.

I heard

that Lee, Ken Harvey, and Oswalt are forming a band called The Book Depositories

They got Pujols and Cespedes this year already.
An NY reporter, David Waldstein, says there’s two teams, Pirates and an unidentified team one of who will get Burnett, and neither is blocked via the restrictions in AJ’s contract.

Rosenthal said that the “mystery team” only has tepid interest in Burnett. As such, they seem largely irrelevant to our calculation here.

well, the other east coast teams are:

washington, baltimore, nymets, philly, atlanta, miami, tampa bay, boston.

you can add Pitt, cleveland, toronto, cincinnati as teams “not too far” from baltimore.

i wouldnt be surprised if Baltimore is the surprise team, and maybe the Mets

I’m becoming increasingly convinced the Yankees are using their media shills to try to pressure the Pirates. The national writers keep saying the Bucs are the only serious option, but every report to that effect is promptly followed by a “mystery team” report from a NY writer. This is what Dejan said on the radio yesterday. It all reminds me of the retarded columns that fucktard Madden was writing about revenue sharing and the luxury tax (which of course he failed to realize doesn’t get distributed to any teams).

can i quote you on the "fucktard" comment?
I don't think you need to

Common knowledge doesn’t require a citation.

No

All the fucktards will be after me.

just claim you were taken out of context
Nah,

they’re too busy keeping Bobbo’s bunghole shiny.

All the fucktards will be after me.

all your fucktards are belong to WTM

Baltimore

already added Chen and Wada. Plus they swapped Guthrie for Hammel. Plus they have all of those young guys that they need to get innings to (they have too much invested in guys like Britton and Arrieta to shrug them off like the Pirates do with Lincoln/Locke). Can’t see Baltimore jumping in at this point.

They just traded Guthrie and now it is revealed Britton’s shoulder is still not right, on top of their pitching already sucking before that. They wouldn’t surprise me at all.

They have a few guys to compete for the 5th spot

meaning they don’t need him. Of course that could be an argument that Melvin is actually the guy too.

I trust Heyman much more than this NYC whack...

LINK

Now we're being flagged as getting it done in the next 24 hours

LINK

did you put the wrong link?

i suppose you meant to link to jim bowden, which scares me— if Bowden says its gonna be done, i m guessing not…

If Bowden says we’re going to get Burnett, we’re probably going to get Wily Mo Pena.

thats better than Wily Less Pena

sorta’

Mo Pena, Mo Problems
Whoops

I sure did mean Bowden

yeah if it was Olney

i’d certainly expect it more… Bowden, eh…

so now its said that the pirates/yankees know which prospects would be involved...

per MLBTR, it will be B- prospects. if thats true, that could be almost anyone in our system

I know everybody’s going to freak out about “B level,” but that doesn’t tell us anything at all. To, say, John Sickels, it means somebody like Grossman. But to a non-prospect-hound, it probably means more like Aaron Pribanic. I counsel patience.

Sorry, I’m too busy freaking out.

Now that freaks me out.

Freak out? FREAK OUT?!?!?

THIS is a freak out.

As is THIS.

Hooray Zappa!

Assumption maybe on the B level guys? The wording looks like that’s his guess.

A- = State College

so B- = Venezuelan Summer League?

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