Paying the bills ...

The Pirates really aren't the sort of team that has a bunch of fantasy sleepers. Its pitchers don't throw a lot of strikeouts, and because they don't tend to pitch particularly long outings and they pitch for the Pirates, they don't pick up a lot of wins, either. There's no closer controversy, and so unless Joel Hanrahan gets hurt or traded (and the latter is certainly a possibility, although probably not until the summer), there's no one worth taking from the bullpen. And the Bucs' offense finished 27th in the majors in runs scored last year.
With all that said, here's a look at the players you should consider.
OF Andrew McCutchen is the obvious choice. McCutchen slumped down the stretch last season as he spent too many at-bats swinging for the fences, but he still posted 20/20 numbers. He's also a former top prospect entering his age-25 season, and he's a decent bet to break out in the average and power departments. Plan on grabbing him in the early rounds.
CL Joel Hanrahan is a great middle-round pick. Fantasy owners never seem to believe that closers on bad teams can rack up saves, but Hanrahan had 40 last year. A few years ago, fantasy owners would let Joakim Soria slip way further down than he should have, mostly because he pitched for the Royals. Don't make the same mistake with Hanrahan.
2B Neil Walker doesn't provide the stolen bases you typically like to get out of your middle infielders, but as a good hitter who will get plenty of RBI opportunities batting in the middle of the Pirates' order, he's worth a late-round pick.
SP Erik Bedard worth a flyer in the last few rounds of standard mixed leagues. He's still a very good pitcher when healthy, and unlike most of the Pirates' other starters, he gets strikeouts. He's constantly hurt, but right now, he's not, so take advantage of that, and watch the free agency pool for potential alternatives to grab when he goes down.
OF Jose Tabata is a potential late-round pick if your team is low on stolen bases. Tabata had 16 in 91 games last year. He'll have to hit for more average and power to be much of a fantasy contributor beyond that, however, and he's hit an extreme number of ground balls so far in his career, which could make the latter a tall order.
SP James McDonald still has a bit of breakout potential as a young-ish starting pitcher with stuff that sometimes produces swings and misses.
Finally, the Pirates appear likely to soon trade for Yankees SP A.J. Burnett. Burnett could be a good late-round pickup, in that he should benefit from the relatively pitcher-friendly confines of PNC Park, and he's a good bet to pitch 180 good innings with above-average strikeout rates. As with all Pirates starting pitchers, however, wins are an issue.
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0 recs | 93 comments
Interesting that Pedro didn’t draw a mention, even as a late-round flyer.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
It would have to be an awfully deep league. He’s obviously worth keeping an eye on, but in the draft, I don’t even think he’s worth thinking about.
Charlie Wilmoth - February 16, 2012
i am definitely drafting pedro
late if someone else doesnt. 3B offense has diminished as a position. still believe pedro will put up at least 2 WAR this year and much of that will be with bat
Mingy - February 16, 2012
i wouldnt draft him
i dont expect him to have a full season, in any case. Add in the questions over the bat, and I’ll pass.
I’m currently scouring the lists for the 2012 Brandon Beachy! (drafted him with the 25th round pick in every league, i think)
BurgherKing - February 16, 2012
Disagree with Charlie
and BK, agree with Mingy. 3B is so shallow Pedro is worth a late round flyer.
McCutchenIsTheTruth - February 16, 2012
Unfortunately, I think this probably falls into the category of “things Pirates fans think.” For example, Yahoo ranks him 31st among third basemen. And that doesn’t include Miguel Cabrera, or Hanley Ramirez.
Charlie Wilmoth - February 16, 2012
Nobody playing roto is going to use Hanley at third while he retains SS eligibility. Same goes for Michael Young and 2B eligibility.
And once you get past the top 10 or so at the position, unless you’re in a super-deep league, there’s no upside in drafting safe mediocrities. There are always going to be guys like Chase Headley on the waiver wire, or near enough as makes no difference. If you don’t get a legitimate top option, your best play is to try an upside guy (like Pedro) and then cut bait after a month if he doesn’t pan out.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
yup
sounds like charlie sucks at fantasy. sorry charlie haha
Mingy - February 16, 2012
Haha. I’m definitely not going to get sucked into an argument about my fantasy baseball prowess.
Charlie Wilmoth - February 16, 2012
charlie is that guy who autodrafts
and wins the entire league without managing his lineup or making any trades
Mingy - February 16, 2012
Yeah, don’t know what I was thinking on the Ramirez comment above.
Charlie Wilmoth - February 16, 2012
I’m not sure I wouldn’t play Young at 3rd… taking a guy like Kinsler early, then coming back and grabbing Young/Pedro later makes a lot of sense to me.
Cheap Beer - February 16, 2012
For whatever it’s worth, my strategy in those situations has often been to grab the lower-upside, reliable option and try to get that production for however long I need to, and then watch the box scores really closely for the first couple weeks to see if any of the lower-floor options stick out. You never really know who those breakout guys are going to be, so I’d often rather wait until after the draft to find them.
Charlie Wilmoth - February 16, 2012
People are going to play Hanley at 3b
3rd is just as shallow at SS, so it really depends on how the pieces fall whether or not you play him at 3B or SS. If you grab Tulo in the first round and pic up Hanley in the 2nd or 3rd. That is an extreme case, but there isn’t a whole lot of talent after say the top five at 3B. Not enough to go around for a 10 or 12 team league, so there will be a lot of people playing Hanley at SS. Now no one is going to play Cabrera at 1B.
sidbreamslegs - February 16, 2012
I think the reason against drafting him
is that you can get someone with his floor in the draft, and then he’ll probably stick around to make waivers
glass0941 - February 16, 2012
It's possible
but I don’t think you are gonna find a player with Pedro’s fantasy upside in round 20+. Dude could hit .260/25HR this year and from 3B that’s monstrous. It’s probably a 5% chance but I’d rather do that then take Alex Gonzalez to be my back up SS.
I didn’t make clear I guess that I’m taking Pedro as a bench player, not a starting option, or if he’s starting I have a definite contingency plan (like the Pirates!).
McCutchenIsTheTruth - February 17, 2012
BK
I’m with you 100%… even if he did produce a 2 war season he’s doing it with way too many K’s for my taste.
Cheap Beer - February 16, 2012
that was my comment about 2 WAR but everyone loves BK whatever the fries suck
Mingy - February 16, 2012
Mingy = takes a chance on Pedro
BK = Does not
Me = Does not
hence the response sting
Yes, the fries SUCK!
Cheap Beer - February 16, 2012
i'm drafting brett lawrie in round 3
Mingy - February 16, 2012
Hell yes
Good pick.
McCutchenIsTheTruth - February 17, 2012
hey
you are thinking of the fries of the one without the “H”. My fries totally rock!
BurgherKing - February 16, 2012
What’s that, around 300th overall rank? Go with Teheran, or try for a Zambrano/Peavy rebound.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
yeah 300-350th depending on the league
I don’t like Teheran to produce numbers that are quite that good. Let’s see…
BurgherKing - February 16, 2012
If you want those kind of numbers in that range and don’t want Teheran, a Peavy rebound is probably your best bet. If you’re determined to go fishing for a rookie breakout, the best non-Teheran in that range is probably Parker or Peacock, if you think either one’s likely to end up with a rotation spot right out of the gate. The park will help their rate stats, though wins are going to be hard to come by, of course. Kris Medlen would be worth jumping on if he pulled a starting slot, but I think he ends up in the pen.
Alternately, you could try taking your sleeper a couple of rounds earlier, and grab Chris Sale around 200 or so.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
i was kinda thinking of Tom Milone
as well as Brad Peacock :-)
BurgherKing - February 16, 2012
I’m not a huge believer in Milone, though the park will help him.
If you do end up with him, best of luck, of course.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
its partly park-based certainly
I would probably not have picked Milone in Washington… same as with Pineda last year.
BurgherKing - February 16, 2012
Here's how you win your league
Have your 10 keepers be
Justin Upton
Albert Pujols
Joey Votto
Mike Trout
Dustin Pedroia
Mike Napoli
Jared Weaver
Felix Hernandez
Zach Greinke
Jon Lester
Easy mode.
McCutchenIsTheTruth - February 17, 2012
mike trout?
meh
BurgherKing - February 17, 2012
If only we weren't in the same league together...
but feel to give me ideas:)
Cheap Beer - February 16, 2012
Eww?!
azibuck - February 16, 2012
ha ha ha ha ha
completely out of context.
I know who I’m targeting to pick in those rounds, don’t want to give that up.
Cheap Beer - February 16, 2012
hey
the discussion is always fun! And that’s the great thing about being in a league with other guys you e-nteract with.
BurgherKing - February 16, 2012
3B's pretty shallow right now.
You go top 18 players at the position by Yahoo’s rankings (1.5 3Bs per team), and you’re in Edwin Encarnacion/Emilio Bonifacio territory.
I could see someone using a bench pick on him in a 12-team mixed, or any sort of keeper league.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
In his career, Bedard has pitched in 8 full seasons. He had one season cut short by a month or two because of an oblique injury and a torn labrum cost him about 1.25 seasons. Why does he get such a bad rap for being injury prone? He’s basically had only 2 injuries in his career, albeit one of them serious. For comparison’s sake, Adam Wainwright missed half of 2008 with a finger issue and all of 2011 with Tommy John surgery. That’s basically the same injury resume as Bedard, yet I’ve never seen a write-up claiming that Wainwright is “constantly hurt”.
Bedard’s career starts starting in ’04:
26, 24, 33, 28,. 15 (oblique), 15 (labrum), 0 (labrum), 24.
24+ starts in 5 of 8 seasons isn’t anything to sneeze at. It’s worth noting that in 2008 when he had his oblique injury, he probably could have came back before the end of the season to make perhaps 4-5 more starts, but he was held out by Jim Riggleman (Mariners manager) because they were out of the race.
SLucas22 - February 16, 2012
Because his health in 2004-2007 isn’t nearly as relevant as what’s happened in the last four seasons, and he hasn’t had a completely healthy one in any of those four. His high in innings pitched in the last four seasons is 129.1.
Charlie Wilmoth - February 16, 2012
Burnett was oft-injured pre-NY too
and now he’s a workhorse.
I like you’re thinking SLucas22 and here’s to hoping it turns out very well for us!
Cheap Beer - February 16, 2012
Ehhh
I realize his IP are low for the last 4 seasons; that will happen when you tear a labrum and miss around 18 months. Coupled with the oblique injury, where he was admittedly shut down early because of the Mariners struggles, that basically encompasses the 08-10 seasons. In 2011, he made 24 starts and averaged 5.38 IP/start. Low? Yes, but what was to be expected from a guy who missed 18 months? You’re only looking at a 4 year set of data, and that set is extremely skewed because of one injury. That’s why I prefer to look at his entire career.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that, no, Erik Bedard won’t be breaking any iron man streaks, but he’s not a guy who only makes 18-20 starts per season because he’s always got a nagging injury. He basically lost 2+ seasons from one horrible injury and has been pretty consistent otherwise.
SLucas22 - February 16, 2012
You’re only looking at a 4 year set of data, and that set is extremely skewed because of one injury.
Well, yes, but labrum tears are usually pretty terrible and career-altering. He also missed a fair amount of time last year with a lat injury and a nagging knee injury. I’m not a doctor, so I can’t argue this too strongly, and I know the career outlook for labrum tears is improving, but he still doesn’t seem like the kind of player I’d bet on getting past 100 innings, and certainly not 150.
Charlie Wilmoth - February 16, 2012
He pitched in 129.1 innings in his first season back from a “career-altering” injury while fighting through knee and lat problems and yet you wouldn’t bet on him passing 100 innings this season?! Am I reading that right? Where can I sign up to take you up on that bet? haha
SLucas22 - February 16, 2012
Kind of a pointless bet – basically a pick ‘em. I’d put the money line for Bedard’s IP this year right around 90 or so.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
I can't help but feel
that you guys are grossly underestimating his potential IP this year. If he threw 129.1 IP last season even when he wasn’t healthy, how do you come up with a money line at 90IP? Are you assuming another major injury? For reference sake, even in the 2 seasons that were mostly lost to injury, Bedard still threw 80+ innings. 90 is way too low for a money line if you ask me…
SLucas22 - February 16, 2012
That second sentence should read “If he threw 129.1 IP last season even when he wasn’t completely healthy,…”
SLucas22 - February 16, 2012
Also
I have a feeling that this is going to be an “agree to disagree” argument and only time will tell who’s right. I’ve said what I need to say and I won’t be surprised if Bedard has 140-150IP this season.
SLucas22 - February 16, 2012
If he manages 150 IP, it’ll be only the third time of his career that that’s happened, FWIW.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
Matt Bandi had him projected at, I think, 82 IP.
Charlie Wilmoth - February 16, 2012
Conservative low estimate. Very low. If the consensus in the league was that he would only have 82IP, methinks he wouldn’t have got a $4.5m contract. Teams have doctors with professional opinions available to them; columnists do not. Besides, I don’t hold Matt Bandi’s projections at the top of my go-to lists. Like I said, agree to disagree.
SLucas22 - February 16, 2012
IP is a massive crapshoot in any kind of projection system
IMO
BurgherKing - February 16, 2012
I think a major injury is fairly likely, yes.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
IMO
A ridiculous thing to project
SLucas22 - February 16, 2012
Unless his Labrum goes out again
which I personally know is a tough injury to overcome, then I have to agree with you that there is no other pattern to suggest that a major injury is imminent.
Cheap Beer - February 16, 2012
He had DL-worthy problems with his knee in 2011, his shoulder in 2010 and 2009, his shoulder AND hip in 2008, his rib cage in 2007, his knee again in 2005, and his elbow in 2003.
In other words, he’s had only two completely healthy seasons out of the last nine. To me, that looks like a pattern.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
The elbow and shoulder injuries
are the only ones that cost him more than half a season… which would be a major injury imo.
and 2007 was a late season shut down (Sep 4) on a non-contending team.
82 IP would say that he plays approx. 40% of the season.
I have to say that if he stays away from arm injuries like 2011, then there’s good hope to pitch upwards of 150 innings.
Cheap Beer - February 16, 2012
Which could have kept him out for an even longer period of time if it hadn’t happened so close to the end of the season.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
In mentioning these injuries
You aren’t mentioning that he pitched in 24 games in 2011, 28 games in 2007, and 24 games again in 2005. Fighting through these injuries to make around a league average amount of starts doesn’t suggest to me that he’s necessarily injury plagued, at least in those 3 seasons. All of the sudden we’re looking at 5 mostly healthy seasons out of 8, starting in ‘04. Again 2 of the remaining 3 lost seasons can be explained by one major injury. I’m still having difficulty seeing a pattern as a chronically injured pitcher.
SLucas22 - February 16, 2012
Why should I? We were talking about IP, not starts. And since when is 24 games a “league average amount of starts”? That’s 20% lower than a typical healthy starter’s workload during the modern era.
No, we aren’t.
It’s not like he’s going to get some kind of extra credit if he tears his labrum again (as he’s done at least twice in the past) and ends up missing a big chunk of 2013 as well.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
If you are going to quote me
please use the whole quote. I said “around a league average”. I never implied that Erik Bedard does not miss a start due to injury. In fact I said earlier
If you look at his career statistics, this statement is true. Consistency, in Bedard’s case, means around 25 starts and 150 IP. This is in reaction to your comment that Bedard is “fairly likely” to sustain another major injury in 2012.I mentioned seasons where he pitched 129.1, 182 and 141.2 innings while fighting through minor problems to contradict your argument that he won’t even pitch 90 innings this season; I didn’t use those numbers to suggest he was a Roy Halladay-esque workhorse.
SLucas22 - February 16, 2012
In a nine-year major league career, Erik Bedard has had a total of two seasons where he was at or above 150. If you gift him an extra 10 IP a year, you can still only get that number up to three. I don’t see any reasonable way to describe him as being “consistently” at that level.
And I already accounted for those. That’s why the money line’s as high as 90 IP, rather than being even lower.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
You are, of course, entitled to your opinion.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
As are you, Vlad
And I will admit that your opinion is probably a little more knowledgeable than mine
SLucas22 - February 16, 2012
He’s a pitcher with a substantial history of both shoulder and elbow problems. Guys generally get less healthy as they get older, rather than more. Simple as that.
Vlad - February 16, 2012
Bedard had TJ in 2002
And he will be 33 on March 6. He’s my favorite player and is why I am posting on a Pirates board, but I will withhold judgment until he actually pitches a season without having an injury substantially affect his performance.
Mary1966 - February 16, 2012
see
Even peoples faves are skeptical even when I was ten and big ben mcdonald was my favorite and before that I was eight john smiley was my fave I never thought my guys could go wrong
tbote123 - February 16, 2012 via mobile
I'm assuming it was intentional
But Fake Teams also had their Pirates fantasy spotlight majigger today. Pedro is listed as their possible breakout player.
Schide - February 16, 2012
Presley — I think Presley’s stats were very real, and that his OBP will actually go up a bit this year… in Fantasy he’ll be worth more than Tabata over a full season in 12’… but no need to draft him unless you’re in a bucsdugout league.
Cheap Beer - February 16, 2012
I agree
I expect more SB and HR from Presley as compared to Tabata this year. That’s not a knock on Tabata or his development; it’s easy to forget that Presley is 3 years older and at age 26 should be coming into his prime offensive years. The good news, as you alluded to, is that most people outside of Pittsburgh would never draft him, hopefully making him a post-draft FA pick-up.
SLucas22 - February 16, 2012
Im big on Presley
I loved watching this kid in the minors. He has a chip on his shoulder and out works everyone on the field. Now character doesn’t help much in fantasy, but I do not expect a drop off. If the homers come down, I think the triples and doubles go up. He is going to steal bases and I don’t see any reason why he wont post a .300 batting avg. Everyone else can keep doubting him, but the kid isn’t lucky, he has worked his butt off and that doesn’t slump. I have seen hits cut off in the gap that maybe 5 guys in the majors would turn into a double and he is one of them. Reminds me a little of Pete Rose with his approach.
sidbreamslegs - February 16, 2012
azibuck ran an NL-only league last year
it got pretty crazy trying to fill out a roster!
BurgherKing - February 16, 2012
I'd actually consider playing Jones as my 1B in an NL only league.
Cheap Beer - February 16, 2012
And it was a blast
If its the one I was in. Lots of teams with a NL only
Wizard of Woz - February 16, 2012
Wow, I think you guys had more fun than me
I’d like to play in a BD-based league again, as I have for about 6 years now. Did you like the points format? If I had it to do over, I’d make it a little less deep so that a bad draft wouldn’t be so crippling. Might futz with the categories a bit too. I think I noted after the season that it was almost too much man-in-a-box. There should be room for alternative lifestyles where you could still make a go of it with base stealers and crappy pitchers.
azibuck - February 16, 2012
not Wiz, but
I enjoyed the points format. It was different from the ones I’ve played in, and there were small enough variables that I could run some numbers in my head. It strikes me that pitchers (esp good ones) have an advantage over hitters. (Or at least, I thought they did, which led me to draft pitchers early, and I think my team’s results bore out the strategy. I’m interested to know if others had thoughts on it.)
BurgherKing - February 16, 2012
I think the balance with Pitchers and batters was a bit off
Also, when we are using counting stats, and not rate stats, I think you can drop the minimum innings pitched component. Since there were both positive and negative values, if you were having a negative week with your pitchers early, you could just sit all of them, fall short of the minimum, and get credit for 0 for the week for pitching. I kept looking to use this strategy, but never had a bad enough week early on to have it happen, but I was close a couple of times. So if you keep the minimum, we should scale the numbers so that negative values don’t happen, or are rare enough that defaulting to 0 for the week would be a viable strategy.
I also agree that a little smaller pool would be better, but having such a deep pool make for fun waiver transfers. I really enjoyed have the talent spread thin enough that it made sense to pick up guys who were called up and got hot, though I had no confidence in them going forward (Dee Gordon). Fun league.
On a side note, I think a rate stat league, with minimums for chances over the year, would be fun as well, though much more difficult to catch up once the sizes got big enough.
Another idea I have heard is a kind of keeper league, where you keep 4-5 guys and redraft at the All-Star break. Could be a good way to mix it up. Anyway, thanks for doing it last year, and I am in for this year if you decide to do another.
Wizard of Woz - February 17, 2012
I wouldn't mind being in an NL only league
if there’s a spot open and the league is still a go.
I’m a bit competitive though, but I play nice!
Cheap Beer - February 16, 2012
Hey, in an NL-only league, what happens if a player gets traded and changes leagues? If your star player gets traded from, say, the DBacks to the A’s, is he just removed from your roster? If a guy gets traded into the NL, does he just become a FA that anyone can pick up?
Superstar25 - February 16, 2012
Yes and Yes
Them’s the breaks.
azibuck - February 16, 2012
That actually sounds pretty fun
Maddening at times, perhaps, but fun
Superstar25 - February 16, 2012
are you planning on doing it again?
it was fun!
BurgherKing - February 16, 2012
Heck, I guess I'll have to!
azibuck - February 17, 2012
Wow, I did not expect people to actually want to talk about this.
Charlie Wilmoth - February 16, 2012
For a lot (most) of us
fantasy baseball is the only way we get to say “My baseball team is having a great year”.
MDBuc - February 16, 2012
+1
McCutchenIsTheTruth - February 17, 2012
It's a great way to stay connected to the whole of baseball
Especially once you get into deep keeper leagues.
Cheap Beer - February 16, 2012
I just started up a slow draft league…draft with 14 teams so I had better start giving this a lot more thought.
Got Longoria with the 9th pick. Eh.
Schide - February 16, 2012
Agree with the other comments
The BD leagues are the only ones I play in, and thus, pay close attention to. Not sure I’d even know half the league’s players if I didn’t play at least one fantasy league.
azibuck - February 16, 2012
I prefer my deep, NL-only rotisserie league to the “real” thing because it’s more active. I’d like the Pirates to win, but I would never trade a roto championship for a Pirates World Series. Some might find that disloyal, but it’s definitely more rewarding to see my savvy rewarded than Neal Huntington’s.
bolton - February 16, 2012
really? surprised?
im surrounded by stat heads and this is shocking??? bwahahahhahahaaaaa
one day they may even have advanced metrics associated with yahoo leagues.
who knows?
white angus - February 16, 2012
a lot of the leagues let you customize scoring
which i didnt know till last year :)
So, we didn’t have ERA or RBIs as stats, instead there were total bases, ABs, etc (and both positive and negative weights were allowed). Very cool stuff!
BurgherKing - February 16, 2012
Yahoo doesn't really have the best category selection though.
They have catcher interference as a category and not something like iso. CATCHER INTERFERENCE.
Schide - February 16, 2012
i didnt know that
but ISO seems overly complicated for a fantasy league… I’d be OK with slugging!
BurgherKing - February 16, 2012
Do you want those or not want those?
McCutchenIsTheTruth - February 17, 2012
Would be a kind of random game changer
Catcher interference + 1000 points. ( or minus if its on the catcher)
Wizard of Woz - February 17, 2012
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