Bucs Dugout

A Yankees fan perspective -- Good AJ, Bad AJ

Yankees fan passing through with a few random thoughts on what I assume will be a completed deal within the next day.

Up front, I’ll say I think this is a good deal for the Pirates. It makes sense for both teams, but for different reasons.

First up, Dejan Kovacevic’s column dramatically overstates AJ’s decreasing velocity. He painted it as a drop from 99 mph to 92 mph. No. His average fastball used to be 96, at times touching 99 in game, where now his average fastball is 93, at times touching 96 in game. It’s a consistent three mph drop when factoring average and peak velocity, not the seven that Kovacevic implied. He still has plenty of fastball, and can dial it up to 95 when needed. Coupled with his sharp curve, he generates a lot of swing and misses.

AJ’s ERAs the last two years haven’t been pretty, but there are some positive indicators. When pitching to non AL-East teams, something that will be the norm now, his ERA is a more reasonable 4.15. His FIPs have also been a good half run lower than his actual ERAs, and moving to the DH-less NL and away from Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right should all be positives for AJ. It is worth nothing, though, that AJ has pitched better at Yankee Stadium all three years in New York than he did on the road. My guess is it’s a bit of randomness and that even if he did pitch better, the park was still hurting him. If anything, I’d take it as a positive in that what should have been the most pressure-packed games he seemed to have some of his best games.

The negative of AJ is he has a big-kick, high-maintenance delivery. Lots of moving parts that generates the power and provides the leverage on his curve. When he’s out of kilter, he can lose command of both the fastball and curve, and that’s when it gets ugly. He’s never shown an ability to grind his way through the bad periods, which is why he has great starts and bad starts, but not enough of the in between ones. Some people believe he gives up on himself when he doesn’t have his best stuff and that means he gets hit even harder. He’s basically a two-pitch pitcher, and that generally has worked for him since they’re both good, but it would benefit him greatly if he could work in his changeup more frequently.

You are going to have periods as fans where you’re sure the Pirates have figured out AJ and that he’s going to be great all season long. You will be wrong. Bad AJ will show up. The goal is to minimize the bad AJ, which will determine how good a season he will have. The Pirates should also put their best defensive catcher out for many of AJ’s games. His curveball not only causes htiters to miss it, it also causes the catcher to miss it, leading to lots of wild pitches and passed balls.

Last, AJ is a pretty good guy, if that matters to you all. You’ll hear him referred to as a headcase, but that has more to do with how he doesn’t always handle adversity well on the mound. Don’t worry, though, he is not a Carlos Zambrano explosion waiting to happen. Just the opposite. His teammates like him, he was always professional with the NY media even during his low points, standing and answering all questions under the glare of the spotlight. He also likes to throw pie when the team has a comeback win. Kind of goofy, but not the worst quality.

Anyway, just wanted to give all sides of AJ, the good and the bad. Overall, as I said at the start, I think it will be a good deal for the Bucs. He’ll give you 30+ starts, 195+ innings, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he got his ERA under 4.00. Certainly worth $6 million or so a season for the next two years. Just be prepared for some frustration along the way. It comes prepackaged with AJ!

LordD99 - February 17, 2012 reply