Bucs Dugout

Paraphrasing Hurdle in a recent interview

He said Pedro may have actually “worked” too hard last year and he needs to remember how to just play the game. Let’s hope a little time off was the best medicine.

lambert58 - February 6, 2012 reply

I really liked this post Charlie.

Recently it seems like you’re coming to terms with being in the, “wow, I really expected so much more from this rebuild,” camp.

Tim Wiliams - February 6, 2012 reply

I’ll flip this around and say I don’t think it’s too early to suggest Pedro Alvarez was a good pick at No. 2 overall.

Three seasons in, Alvarez is in the big leagues, has a 15 home run season under his belt and has posted a 1.4 offensive WAR. I don’t think that’s awesome, but I also don’t think it’s an indictment of Neal Huntington and Co. as talent evaluators.

I understand the criticisms of Alvarez, and I don’t really dispute whether they’re founded or not, because they are. You can’t let him off the hook for the debacle that was 2011. At the same time, the fact that he’s here and has accomplished some of the things he has already tell me he possesses the raw, natural talent you have to use the No. 2 overall pick on.

Bringing it along is another matter, and that’s where I think he and the Pirates have fallen short, not in the selection itself.

Adam Bittner - February 6, 2012 reply

Ya we could of had beckham fall to us

And pedro goes #1 i say we got lucky

tbote123 - February 6, 2012 via mobile reply

I may disagree with some parts of this

Though I’m unclear what you think the players drafted should be showing now. In particular

If Alvarez in particular and Huntington’s draft classes in general truly looked as good as they should, people probably wouldn’t bother with this argument.

Unless you mean there’s about one chance in 10 that Alvarez should look like an established player (which is the track record for the first 10 college players taken in the 2008 draft).

Roberto - February 6, 2012 reply

In that scenario, I think we would have taken Posey. Then we draft Shelby Miller instead of Tony Sanchez in 2009.

The Rays SCREWED us!

If only we hadn't blown the 2007 pick, we'd have this guy

SuperBaes - February 7, 2012 reply

oh why does the plaque have to be black n gold

great post charlie

I have been in the “wow, I can’t believe that these guys are doing so bad” camp after being so excited and energized by their selections. I guess that after all this time there is still some part of me that expects magic from the draft classes. Even thought i still know that this is a process.

bbautista24 - February 6, 2012 reply

I don’t have a problem with the Alvarez selection, at least in theory. Certainly with hindsight and the information we have right now you’d probably pick Hosner or Lawrie (possibly Posey if he doesn’t get hurt in that alternate universe). But I don’t think it’s an especially positive or negative reflection of the front office or scouting dept.

If memory serves he was considered the best college hitter in the draft and more or less the obvious pick were he available (I have a vague memory of Buster Posey being considered a legitimate selection but not Hosmer, if my memory is off, don’t hesitate to let me know). My point I suppose is just that I don’t think it provides much of a basis to judge their drafting.

More telling to me is the relative lack of success of the over slot signees they’ve drafted in the later rounds, where less of an industry consensus existed. Particularly the pitchers from 2009.

I say that with the caveat that I understand the development process requires patience and doesn’t progress in a straight line and we may well feel differently about those aforementioned over slot picks in the 6 months or a year.

rj.reynolds - February 6, 2012 reply

You raise a good point...

…other than Pedro, the biggest problem with Huntington’s rebuild has been the failure of any of the overslot, high upside pitchers to develop into anything potentially useful.

Huntington took a big gamble with the 2009 draft and as of right now that roll of the dice looks to be coming up snake eyes.

Is it a scouting problem (taking the wrong upside guys) or a development problem (lacking the coaches at the lower levels to unlock potential)? I admit I have no idea.

anything useful?

ZVR ended the year on a tear and might turn into a BA top 100 prospect this year.

Colton Cain – useful
I’m forgetting one other big RH bonus pitcher…but he’s also useful. It’s not Duke Welker. Gah i can’t remember

I’m using the Scott Van Pelt/Sean Connery – useful

NICK KINGHAM!

for $1000 alex

Whether ZVR, Cain, or Kingham prove useful remains to be seen. I think there’s pretty broad agreement that spending aggressively in the last four drafts was a sensible strategy. Simply employing that strategy puts this front office light years ahead of the previous front office (probably the definition of faint praise). However were they able to excite that strategy with success? I’m not sure. My sense is that industry opinion seems to leans towards ‘no’. That said I’m certainly not writing anyone off at this point but the early results are a little discouraging.

I guess there’s the question of what was/is a reasonable expectation for the over slot picks?

rj.reynolds - February 6, 2012 reply

Kingham will be something. Id bet quite a bit on that right now and feel confident with that bet.

C Shint - February 6, 2012 reply

Kingham was a 2010 pick

Sure you’re not thinking of Zack Dodson?

Dodson's a lefty, though

as is Cain.

Stevenso, maybe?

although he’s been awful so far.

i was thinking of Kingham not in the sense of a 2009 draftee but just a big bonus high school pitcher. ZVR was an 09 draftee right? and the biggest bonus to a pitcher right?

People not on the ZVR train need to get on it. Yes he obviously struggled mightily to begin with. We almost should’ve expected him to struggle. He winds up on BA top 100 next year

Stevenson, Inman (college bonus baby), Q. Miller, Black all flops. None of our “projectable” guys are throwing 96 yet, that seems to be the problem.

That's the risk of going pitching-heavy at the top of a draft.

Pitching prospects have a very high failure rate.

Pounders

was in 2009.

BlindSquirrel - February 6, 2012 reply

Let's say Pedro did do well and was an All-Star selection,

some would then say it’s expected, after all we did pay $6 million. No, the perceived problem with NH’s capability is not Alvarez. The issue for me is that there is not one legitimate, exciting hitting prospect in the system (not named Walker or Marte), Josh Bell notwithstanding.

I’m asking quite HUMBLY, is it too much to expect to have just one hitting prospect after 4 years?

pizibao - February 6, 2012 reply

There is also Robbie Grossman.

Dickerson’s performance in a full season league and the continued development of the guys on the 2011 GCL team could greatly improve the situation, which is already looking for more promising than last year at this time when the teams top hitting prospect was Tony Sanchez.

rj.reynolds - February 6, 2012 reply

Like to remain as a NH fan

We have discussed in length over this offseason (aside from adding starting pitchers), the lack of production from RF, 1B and 3B. And I’m wondering why does this weight all have to be on the shoulders of Pedro. Where’s his supporting cast? And who are the exciting 3-4-5 hitters in our system now?

The names I see (Grossman, Tabata, Paulino, Bell, Dickerson) are either still at the A level or they are still unproven (Tabata) or unknown (Bell). I’m only asking quite HUMBLY once again, can we not expect more from NH?

Put it this way, I think I’m being told that the 5 names from above are enough to say that NH has done a good job of identifying hitting prospects over the last 4 yrs.

pizibao - February 7, 2012 reply

Put it this way, I think I’m being told that the 5 names from above are enough to say that NH has done a good job of identifying hitting prospects over the last 4 yrs.

No, you’re not being told that. You are, on the other hand, moving goalposts as quickly as you can. Your previous comment said nothing about identifying hitting prospects, asking instead HUMBLY whether you might expect ONE hitting prospect after 4 years.

they are still unproven (Tabata)

By their nature, prospects/early ML players are unproven.

BurgherKing - February 7, 2012 reply

I certainly don’t wish to get into a slugfest with you over a team we both would love to see succeed. Let’s see if I can calmly make some sense here…

My whole contention is to assess whether NH is doing a good job. And to follow up on that, I’ve focused (fairly or unfairly) on hitting prospects. And then I asked if there are exciting and legitimate prospects other than Pedro. In my mind, I’m not sure what we have with Tabata, in that, he’s faded in the last year. The other guys have spent some time at the A level, but have established good #s to advance. But they are just advancing to one of the tougher levels. And Bell hasn’t started playing yet. I’m still not sure (implying I didn’t move any goal post) that there are any exciting and legitimate hitting prospects other than Pedro in this group of 5.

Put it this way, I thought of a brighter future when I saw Pedro’s minor league #s when he started turning things around. It’s just not the same thing when I see what this group of 5 had achieved this past year.

Now let’s say you’re right that anyone else would consider this group of 5 as exciting and legitimate prospects, then may I ask are you satisfied with this group after 4 years.

pizibao - February 7, 2012 reply

implying I didn’t move any goal post

The last line of your first comment in this subthread clearly asks for “one hitting prospect”, whereas in the comment after that you say “can we not expect more from NH?” That’s pretty much the definition of a moving goalpost. Not that the second isn’t a valid question.

Now let’s say you’re right that anyone else would consider this group of 5 as exciting and legitimate prospects, then may I ask are you satisfied with this group after 4 years.

I am not. I think the hitting has been neglected, but that seems to have been a conscious choice to go with the pitching and I’m fine with that. There’s a number of interesting position players in the system— Bell, Marte, Cabrera, Paulino, Sanchez, Rojas, Dickerson, Curry, Mercer, D’Arnaud— that someone could really break out, which when coupled with Pedro, Cutch, Walker, Tabata, Presley is a nice enough group overall.

The bigger issue really is that the pitching doesn’t seem so far to be coming through.

BurgherKing - February 7, 2012 reply

“i assumed that he was talking about hitting prospects aside from Alvarez”
- BurgherKing

No malice here, but I thought you knew what I was talking about.

While it is a given that NH has emphasized a pitching first draft strategy, nonetheless, it’s still disappointing. After all, two 1st round picks were spent on hitting prospects. As for the last group of players you mentioned in your last comment, you don’t need me to point out that the majority of them cannot be credited to NH.

So where’s the alpha NH should be adding? (On a side note, I’ve always said the man just needed a lucky break or two. But lately, I’m doubting whether that is true.)

pizibao - February 7, 2012 reply

4 years

so i assume you’re including 2011. Why doesn’t Bell count?

There’s also Tabata, and Grossman and Cabrera and Paulino.

and why doesn’t Pedro count?

i assumed that he was talking

about hitting prospects aside from Alvarez.

so he crossed off 4 hitters then asked why are there no hitters? makes sense to me…

Point 1…Tabata isn’t a prospect, he’s a major leaguer.
Point 2…Tabata isn’t a NH draftee.

not sure-- neither of your "points" are points

On 1, a major leaguer is better than a prospect, I’d have thought

On 2, no he isn’t an NH draftee, the post I’m replying to never asked for a draftee, and he certainly is an NH acquisition.

Honest question Charlie

If you could fire and replace NH now would you?

Don't know about Charlie, but I would

Not sure it would help, though, while Coonelly is still around.

Who would you hire?

And what strategy would you have them follow?

Foolish question

I have no way of knowing who’s really available, and only an utter moron would settle on a GM without extensive interviews and phone calls throughout MLB. Somehow I doubt I could get a phone call returned by saying I need to respond to a blog post. If the best defense of NH you have is to demand that people name who they’d hire, then you don’t have a defense.

The current strategy, at the macro level, is fine. The execution is inadequate.

"Somehow I doubt I could get a phone call returned by saying I need to respond to a blog post."

…I dunno, Wilbur – I think you have more sway than you think you do.

+1

“Well why didn’t you say ‘WTM’? I don’t know who the hell ‘Wilbur’ is, but I’ll always take WTM’s call. Put him through!”

Ha! Rec'd.

Exactly,

How exactly do you plan to change what has been in place since 2008 in order to achieve that?

WTM doesn't plan to do it

he needs a GM that can evaluate/project talent better, and/or a scouting department that can do a better job at producing quality ML players.

This is always Kosstic’s tactic when he needs to defend the indefensible. Describing precisely what changes you’d make has nothing whatsoever to do with judging NH’s performance. I don’t have to know why he’s shown atrocious judgment with major league talent to know that the Pirates can’t afford a GM with atrocious judgment in major league talent.

Give me a seven-figure salary, freedom from my current job, and a staff of scouts and analysyts, and I’ll tell you what moves I’d make. But I don’t need any of that to tell you how much money and playing time NH has wasted on Kevin Correia, Lyle Overbay, Ryan Church and several dozen other guys.

Well now

I thought the Church pickup was perfectly reasonable. Maybe I’m not recalling the circumstances well, but he seemed like a decent bounce back candidate, cheaply acquired, who wouldn’t be blocking anybody.

That said, he does fit into a pattern that’s fairly consistent and fairly ugly. NH needs to learn that, just because you can build a decent bullpen with cheap, scrapheap guys doesn’t mean you can fill any other slots that way.

yeah

i mean, frankly, all the pickups are somewhat defensible, its just that some of them need to work out, as opposed to none.

It’s easy to defend some individual moves. Not all of them were as obviously stupid as, say, signing Overbay. But these kinds of arguments always miss the forest for the trees. If there wasn’t something wrong with NH’s judgment of talent, more of these moves would have worked out. It doesn’t matter which ones. It’s OK to judge NH on the totality of his record. After four years, you shouldn’t have to parse every move to find the precise errors.

+1000

I’m not saying that I’d dump NH at this point, but WTM’s analysis here is dead-on. The problem is that entering a 5th season of control the results are lacking. There is nothing wrong with expecting one’s major league franchise to excel at talent evaluation and development.

Good day.

Uncle Nate - February 6, 2012 reply

Well, no, you can’t really make a change right now. But if the season effectively ends in June or before, I’d do it then. Basically, he should be on a very short leash now.

I agree completely

I was just surprised to see Church on the list because he was IMO the least obviously flawed pickup.

It’s very much like the back and forth we always have about the Pirates’ bad luck in the Bonifay and Littlefield eras. I firmly believe that the org had worse than average luck (in terms of injured pitchers, in terms of flashes in the pan never working outª), but obviously most of that bad luck is the residue of bad planning – Moskos appears to be even worse than originally projected, but his projection was so poor that it’s no excuse.

ª e.g. Warren Morris, the endless string of CFs who’d put together a solid 2nd half and then flop the following spring, Zach Duke.

Sorry, I’m not playing this cross-examination game. None of these questions has the slightest relevance to the question whether NH has shown himself suited to make the Pirates successful.

We don't know who will succeed yet

It seems to me that the overwhelming majority of criticism being tossed Huntington’s way is based on Sanchez and Pedro. Yes, there is some concern over the apparent failures of the overslot HS arms but if you hit on top-5 picks, people seem to care much less about what happens in rounds 5-10.

What if Pedro comes out this season and hits 31 HRs with 113 RBI (I know, I know it’s a “useless” stat) and a .272/.345/.494 line. Would people still be calling him a bust or calling for NH head because he picked this guy 2nd? Before you say that is an unrealistic expectation, consider that was Pedro’s projected line based on his final 350 PA’s as a 22 year old rookie (albeit with 195 K’s). Is it cherry-picking to eliminate his gawd-awful 10 game start where he struck out in 17/38 PAs? Yeah, it might be. It also might just be an acknowledgement that Pedro might not be especially quick to make adjustments and needed to get used to ML pitching (something he was unable to do last season because of the injuries).

I’m also not willing to write off the chance that Tony Sanchez finishes this season catching in Pittsburgh. The jaw-issue has been beaten to death but the fact remains that he is a talented kid and too young to give up on after 3 bad months (he had a passable .749 OPS at the end of May). This season is a big one for Huntington. I don’t disagree with that at all. However, I think it could be hasty to fire him now when the outlook of the entire system will be substantially different if two highly drafted and very talented 24 year old’s bounce back.

With all due respect...

You are missing the point. Answer the following question:

Based upon the presently available information, are you reasonably confident that the current management of the Pirates will lead them to success in a reasonable period of time?

I am not reasonably confident of that, but if I were the decision maker my inclination would be to give NH the 2012 season. However, if he wants to keep his job he would need to show me that the team is much closer to being successful than I presently believe, or that he can & will become more aggressive, creative and impressive with his player acquisition strategy.

Good day.

Uncle Nate - February 6, 2012 reply

Well

I don’t think we disagree as much as it might seem. I think that based on the information we have available, NH deserves to stick out the 2012 season because that year will give us a better idea about what we have in Pedro and Sanchez who are vital to the team’s success going forward. My post above was not meant to say that he should be able to stick around until after Pedro and Sanchez retire so we can get a full look at how their careers panned out. All I was trying to say is that firing him NOW (which was the first question in this particular thread) seems premature to me because much of NH’s “failure” to this point is based on the bad seasons his ‘08-’09 1st round picks had. A repeat from those two shows that they really might not be as good as advertised. However, if they bounce back to their previous levels of performance, it seems like that would improve NH’s drafting track record enough that people would be more hesitant to call for his head.

There's something to this

and as noted below, there are a half dozen guys form the ’08 class who might still provide some value, maybe 1 or 2 who provide a half dozen WAR apiece.

But that doesn’t really change that NH has a middling record in several aspects of his job, most glaringly FA acquisition but also judging trade talent (he hasn’t been terrible, and he’s gotten better, but he’s still not winning enough trades). Even if PA establishes himself and Sanchez forces his way into the bigs, NH’s overall record is mixed at best, and we need better than that. Given the team’s constraints, we actually do need to have the best management team in baseball.

I don't entirely agree

with the two areas you think NH has come up short (trades and FA’s). The trade issue has really been beaten to death but I don’t think it’s fair. NH made a bad trade with Jason Bay (at least one that turned out badly). Because he was the team’s star, it’s really tough to live that down. He also made the Joey Bats trade but I still refuse to blame him for that because it was 100% unforeseeable. It would be like blaming you for not buying a Powerball ticket from a gas station that happened to sell the winning ticket.

The FA acquisitions have not been good. In fact most of them have been pretty bad. At that same time (and this is not a great defense) they were minor acquisitions. All of them. NH is financially limited and as many others have pointed out, he only has one big bullet in his FA gun. To this point, he has made minor moves b/c the MLB team wasn’t good enough that a bigger move would have mattered. At some point, the Pirates will have to make a bigger move. To be honest, there were several moves that I really wanted the team to make this offseason and they didn’t. At the same time, I’m not convinced that he should be fired because “if the team had only signed Mediocre Free Agent (A) instead of Mediocre Free Agent (B) they would have won 74 games last year instead of 72!”

It's not coming up short

It’s “middling” performance. We need a top tier GM (in ability, I don’t care about rep/track record) because we can’t win on payroll. If NH is the #15 GM in the league, that’s just not good enough. And I don’t see his trade record or his FA record as suggesting better than average abilities.

There’s no question that he’s won some trades (Hanny, Mortonª), but he’s also bought an awful lot of lottery tickets with very, very few hits. I think that there are more than a few GMs who could’ve taken the same chips and gotten (somewhat) better outcomes.

ª although Morton is a win mostly because McLouth tanked so spectacularly that even mixed results from Charlie count as a big win

If the Pirates

cold land legit top tier GM then I dont have a problem with it but I’m not sure that’s the case. I don’t think you’ll see the “elite” GM’s leaving their jobs to come to Pittsburgh so any hire would be a gamble.

Yeah. If NH is top 12-18 at his job, there might not be an improvement available.

If NH is in the top 12-18 at his job, then he wouldn’t have to worry about being unemployed.

You will have to take that up with JRoth.

I am curious as to where you would rank Huntington, though.

Not in the top 12-18…bottom 10 more likely.

Thunder - February 7, 2012 reply

shocker!

Bear in mind

That’s 12-18 out of the 30 guys who have jobs right now. There’s no reason – at all – to believe that the 12 best possible GMs in America are employed as GMs for MLB teams at this moment. Young guys develop. Old guys lose their stuff (but stay employed). We don’t need to hire Cashman or Theo to get a top 10 GM.

JRoth95 - February 7, 2012 reply

If the Pirates could land legit top tier GM then I dont have a problem with it but I’m not sure that’s the case.

We definitely have the ability to land top-tier candidates. Last time the job was open, we interviewed LaCava and Woolfork, and Rizzo was pretty much begging for an interview.

At that point, it becomes a matter of picking the right one.

We don’t know who will succeed yet

No, but we can make educated guesses based on the information that is currently known. Which is what we’re doing here.

Which is perfectly fine

This is also why I’d have NH on a short leash. If the organization can’t make positive strides this year then he’s on his way out at the end of the season. My comment above was meant to address the question of whether on not Huntington should be replaced right now. I don’t think he should because (IMO) the two biggest knocks against his 4 years at the helm so far is that his first two top-5 picks don’t seem to be panning out. It is my belief that firing him now would be premature because one down year by those two players shouldn’t be enough to cost him his job. A repeat performance from one or both of those two goes a long way in showing that there really is a problem here. However, even modest progress out of those two key players completely changes my (and I believe many people’s) outlook on the system. That’s why I don’t think it’s a fair statement that NH should be fired now b/c he didn’t pick guys who succeeded.

who I'd hire

I would hire either Andrew Friedman or Alex Anthopolous, and tell them to employ whatever strategy they see fit.

epoc - February 6, 2012 reply

Among guys who aren’t currently working as GMs, Dan Jennings would have to be on the short list (though the Marlins have denied him permission to be interviewed for outside jobs before). I’d also take a long, hard look at Logan White. And if the rumor about Gerry Hunsicker being interested in another turn in the big chair are true, he’d be a very strong candidate.

Couple more names:

Tony LaCava interviewed for our job the last time it was open, and I think he’d make a good GM. The Rangers’ scouting has been strong enough for the last few years that Josh Boyd would merit an interview.

It would probably be extremely difficult to get them to leave their current jobs.

I don’t know what they are paid, but I agree that I’d rather have either over Huntington. Are their salary figures public?

I'm curious...

….why you think Coonelly is a big anchor?

Not disagreeing here, just curious to hear your reasoning.

I maintain my previously expressed sentiments on Huntington: I want a winning season in the next two years or I want him out in September 2013. For now, though, keep him.

I think . . . actually, I’ve been told . . . that a lot of GM candidates didn’t want to work for FC. I don’t know for sure, but I expect he plays a big role in their overly rigid approach to player valuation, among other things.

Makes sense

It is worth wondering how much of the infamous “internal value” and “bargain hunting” tendencies laid at Huntington’s feet are driven by Coonelly.

Not exculpating NH or anything, but it is an interesting question.

yes

I think it’s worth, at this point, starting to seriously consider that Nutting/Coonelly are the major problem with this organization going forward. Not that we can do any more about that than we can about Huntington.

(Also, btw, I would fire Huntington right now, too, but I also think that in the long run things will work out all right with him around. He’s proven to be a thoroughly mediocre GM, but any team can have some success if you give a good strategy long enough to develop. Huntington’s rebuild is taking way too long, but eventually we’ll see the fruits in Pittsburgh. [Not that that means championships, necessarily, but at least not being laughing stocks every year.])

epoc - February 6, 2012 reply

Nutting

To me, he seems like he’s been pretty hands-off – which is a good thing.

I certainly would not

in fact I have Alvarez as my breakout player of the year.

georgesar - February 6, 2012 reply

“Here’s a shocking admission: I can’t predict the future.”

That’s it. I’m done with this blog.

SALE THE DUGOUT

Charlie is perhaps the first person in the history of sports blogging..

…to admit he is not all knowing, all seeing and all powerful.

This!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

georgesar - February 6, 2012 reply

I would bat Alvarez in the 3 spot

behind Tabata and McCutchen. He seems really vulnerable to that slow loopy breaking stuff, which would give those two greater chances of stealing. Just think he would see alot more fastballs that way.

georgesar - February 6, 2012 reply

Need to fix a typo here

“He seems really vulnerable to that ~~slow loopy breaking stuff~~ all forms of Major League pitching”

I agree it's not too early to judge

At the same time it’s not too early to give up on Pedro or Tony Sanchez (not saying you’re arguing that, just pointing it out), but their clocks are moving rapidly toward midnight.

Pedro turns 25 today. It’s time for a breakout season, particularly as the #2 overall selection & (supposedly) polished college hitter, his expectations are rightfully higher than most.

Errr...it IS too early to give up on Pedro & Sanchez

MOAR COFFEE

Not only is it Pedro’s birthday, it is also the birthday of our very own IAPiratesFan !!!

Happy Birthday, amigo!

Coincidence?

I think not!

King Oskar - February 6, 2012 reply

Thanks man.

I knew that Pedro was gonna be great when he was drafted and I saw when his birthday was.

IAPiratesFan - February 6, 2012 reply

Same reason I’ve always loved Aramis Ramirez.

SuperBaes - February 6, 2012 reply

what i gathered from this article

there’s a terrible dearth of news right now, and we cannot wait for ST to start! When does it start and which games are televised?

That's definitely a huge part of it. This issue has been rehashed on this website ad infinitum.

However I understand Charlie has a business to run.

well, no one wants to see the site go dark

and it hasn’t been seeing much production from the new front-page posters. Is it too early to judge them?

I'm not saying there is anything wrong with it, nor do I want to see the site go dark.

Writing about polarizing topics is a great way to increase your site/business value.

it hasn’t been seeing much production from the new front-page posters.

Don’t look at me – I’m on the 15-day DL.

you've lost your prospect eligibility anyway

SALE THE WHYGZS!

Bucs Dugout --> Operation Shutdown

King Oskar - February 6, 2012 reply

Aren’t drugs and hookers supposed to be part of the deal?

the official term is "punting"

it might just be me but

I really don’t have a problem with the 08 draft at all. It’s got two good prospects that don’t get enough love IMO in Jordy Mercer and Justin Wilson. Jordy Mercer should be your starting SS at AAA this year and should be knocking on the door if he keeps it up.

Justin Wilson struggled a tad at AAA but will probably have better results repeating the level again. He wasn’t awful either 4.66 FIP. Mercer put up good numbers at AA and then decent numbers at AAA for a shortstop with improved defense.

Robbie Grossman is Robbie Grossman is good!

4 players that i expect to contribute at the ML level. Is that a bad draft? i might be forgetting someone too.

Chase D’Arnaud. Also alive from that draft: Jeremy Farrell, Matt Hague, (the higher upside) Jarek Cunningham and Mike Colla.

I do agree though that Alvarez is the likeliest “impact” player that can really make the draft.

FWIW, Pirates’ Prospects’ new beat writer, Kristy Robinson, is going to have a piece up I think today on Hague.

Hey, no kiddin’?

Nope

She’s going to cover home games and spring training.

missed my chance to have amazing baseball wife

a few summers ago, Kristy used to have season tickets right next to where my rich buddy from HS did behind the Bucco dugout. We all thought she must be insane or something bc she’d be at Pirates games all by herself but she’s kinda hot so i was like ‘crazy baseball chick, i can deal with this’ so i would talk to her all the time haha. Had i known that she is not a weirdo/goes to game by herself but she was there for a reason, who knows what would’ve happened. the one that got away

maybe she thought the same thing about you

>:-D

Good for her. I bet PP isn’t too bad a gig…

Not if Tim is paying her expenses in FL, I suppose. I opted out of the financial end of things, so I don’t know how it’s doing, but I’m guessing Wall Street type bonuses aren’t happening.

I opted out of the financial end of things…

Why, if you don’t mind me asking?

He plays for the love of the game

I thought the money was better spent upgrading the site, paying for Tim’s travel, etc. The potential amount was such that it figured to impact the site a lot more than it would me.

See? I was right!

Now we need you to talk with Cutch about his extension….

We need to talk with Primanti's

about signing Cutch to a fat endorsement deal so that he’s set financially

Wait really?

Wow PP has grown over the last few years…

Superstar25 - February 6, 2012 reply

This is precisely why the focus is on PA

There could be, literally, a half-dozen guys in this draft class who get 1000+ ML PAs/100+ IP, but it’s not clear that anyone, other than Pedro, will be a starter for so much as 2 consecutive seasons (even if Grossman continues to develop, he probably can’t start in RF for a contender, except as a weak link). The former would represent a generally good draft by most standardsª, but the Pirates were drafting 2nd and had a big budget, and so the standard is higher.

ª and, indeed, if they’d had a draft that good in ‘03 or ’04, maybe NH doesn’t need to break up the ’27 Yankees in ’08. That team had maybe a dozen legit MLBers all told, but that was all. Add in a few decent role players, and maybe a couple guys who could actually be traded for value, and conceivably that team could have gone somewhere.

yeah

I’ve been looking a lot at teams’ draft records, and occasionally at the records of early second-round draft spots (that is, everyone who was drafted #50 or #53 for a dozen years or so), and it is just amazing how much of the value of the draft is concentrated in the first round. Missing on a top-five pick is huge. Of course NH is trying a somewhat different strategy, but as we’ve been discussing the early results from it aren’t great.

There are still a few ways for the draft to succeed without Pedro, mostly because I think Grossman would be a fine starter if he hits his ceiling. But it’s all about Pedro.

just win baby

don’t care about prospects, its about W and L and this present front office is averaging 96 losses per year. the first 2 draft classes look like low impact to out right busts. ps the best 2 players on the team are littlefield men cutch and walker and huntington guys hit around the alvarez line, ahem I mean the mendoza line.

sweetleb - February 6, 2012 reply

Interestingly they were once prospects…

rj.reynolds - February 6, 2012 via mobile reply

rec'd

not that that is likely to get through to sweetleb

My take on Huntington

I don’t think a GM will ever truly succeed at the major league level under Nutting and Coonelly. I consider success to be winning some and competing for several pennants.

I don’t think Huntington is good enough at this time to have success at the major league level. But here is my reasoning for keeping him around. He has improved the farm system from bottom of the barrell to middle of the pack or better, and it seems like it should improve further. He could gain experience and become a better GM at the major league level. The plan of investing in the minors first and foremost HAS to be the focus for this organization. So at worst, Huntington will be leaving behind a system that is in good shape.

I don’t think any GM would have had major league success by this point anyway, so why not stay the course since we are fundamentally doing the right thing. Until ownership shows they will spend, we won’t see a decent GM in Pittsburgh.

ballparkfranks - February 6, 2012 reply

The sad part

It’s possible that the Pirates could have had a great 2008 draft class. It’s also possible that the organization failed in terms of the Pedro-specific-development. Would Pedro benefited from a full season at AAA? Maybe. Yes, they are different players, but Grossman repeated a level and there seems to be a considerably different viewpoint of him now, than last year. In an alternative reality, perhaps NH would have taken criticism for taking a longer minor league developmental route with Pedro, but he might have been a more “finished” product than he is now.

One way to judge a draft class is to go the comparative route – i.e., how does the output and development of this class compare to other team’s classes? I don’t have that information, but there are things to like about the 2008 class. Alvarez has time to improve and develop (he’s shown promise and misery), Grossman has great potential, Hague and d’Arnaud are now major leaguers, Farrell and Mercer look serviceable, Cunningham has some potential, Wilson, too, and Colla’s 25 but he’s put some up excellent peripherals.

CO_Bucs - February 6, 2012 reply

Here’s a little bit of comparison. It’s pretty surprising how completely the Rays seemed to have whiffed at the #1 slot.

You’re a little more optimistic on some of your judgments than me — Hague isn’t a major leaguer yet, d’Arnaud is headed back to Indy, and I’m not impressed with Farrell. But, as I say there, most draft picks fail. It’s important to hit on the top guys.

Thanks for info

Also, thanks for the correction on Hague/d’Arnaud. I thought they were going to start 2012 in Pittsburgh.

CO_Bucs - February 6, 2012 reply

Hague is presumably in the mix, but I don't think he's a lock

About d’Arnaud, from this Coonelly interview (PG+ but I guess I still have free articles?):

If Chase d’Arnaud was ready, maybe we wouldn’t have been in the market for a shortstop, but we were. Still believing in Chase, but thinking it’s better for him to play every day.

Which I pretty much read as “He’s going to Indy.” This was the notorious “We won’t sign Prince Fielder” interview, BTW.

Frankly...

if the Pirates thought d’Arnaud was anywhere close to being ready to be a starting major league shortstop, they wouldn’t have signed Barmes to a 2 year contract.

I like the

direction the the team is headed in. I think the seven year version of this rebuild will be worth the wait. Check out my first fan post.

terrbeargray - February 6, 2012 reply

there's a bit more we may not be considering

it’s entirely possible that NH’s first couple of years were a learning process, and that he is much better now as a GM than he was then. In that sense, we may want to discount his earlier failures a bit, because you don’t want to give up a guy that is ready to break out (or in the process of breaking out).

(2008 might well still turn out to be his best draft, but I want to throw that thought out there)

As some people have argued above, I think I wouldn’t fire NH straight away, but would be watching closely, and the end of 2012 might well necessitate a decision, as Charlie posted earlier.

Pedro Alvarez: a sign

As r.j. reynolds mentioned briefly above: Wasn’t Alvarez pretty widely regarded as the top college hitter in the draft? And, all financials aside: wasn’t he considered the best selection at the top? After watching the Pirates take Daniel Moskos in 2007, I was sure they’d wimp out and take the easy sign; or be scared off by Boras and Petey’s huge price tag. When they ponied up the dough, negotiated with the man himself (I love Scott Boras), and signed Alvarez, I thought it showed that this regime was going to commit to winning.

NOTE: Taking the high-priced, super-talented, “can’t miss” guy doesn’t always work out. See the 2001 MLB first-year draft.

SuperBaes - February 6, 2012 reply

alvarez was the consensus #1 amatuer talent available in that draft

people have their opinions of whom they would have taken instead of Pedro, but he definately was the #1 talent. if the Pirates DIDNT take pedro, can you imagine how much anger would have been aimed at the new FO?

Wasn’t Alvarez pretty widely regarded as the top college hitter in the draft?

Yes, though not by much.

And, all financials aside: wasn’t he considered the best selection at the top?

Yes, though there were some lingering concerns over his health.

FWIW

I personally leaned towards Beckham (oops) and Posey (yay), but that’s because I’m kind of position-obsessed, which they always say you shouldn’t be in drafts, but whatever.

oldfrothingslosh - February 6, 2012 reply

I agree with BurgerKing......

Whether it is right or wrong I tend to give NH a couple years for a learning curve.

I think I would have preferred a GM with experience but I don’t know given the problems the franchise had how hard it would have been to sign a quality expierenced GM.

I believe BN and FC knew this was a 10 year rebuild and needed somebody that would accept that fact.

I thought given that teams like the Rays have taken 10yrs to build their minors that the Pirates would also take that long so unlike alot of Pirate Nation I am not frustrated after only four drafts there is still six yrs to go before the system will be where it needs to be.

I just don’t see the Pirates signing anybody of any consequence when they have a patchwork team.

When they have a rotation made up of Cole and Taillon and whomever else steps up from the prospect list along with a lineup mostly of young talent from the minors then they may make some quality moves but they don’t have team right now to do that. They basically have been saying that since they took over but alot of people for some reason don’t accept that.

the big difference with the Rays and the Pirates over the last decade:

the Devil Rays originally made a big splash in FA and trades. Once they realized that the fanbase wasnt there to support an expensive bad team, they started focusing on the minor leagues.

as an original Devil Rays fan, I can tell you that the fans they did have hated how “cheap” the organization had become.

I wonder if they still pine for the Fred Mcgriff, Greg Vaughn, Wade Boggs days

There's still a lot of rumbling about "cheapness"

I hear everything from “Why did they let Crawford go?” to “Why is the Trop such a dump?” Tampa’s not much of a baseball town and the fanbase is only mediocre at supporting even a winning Rays team (unless the Yankees or Red Sox are in town).

In fairness, the Trop is a dump (and not very centrally located) and no one apparently paid attention to Crawford last year (or the big dollars he signed for before it). Besides Longo, none of the guys are crazy-popular down here (in that non-baseball fans know who they are like non-baseball fans in Pittsburgh knew the Outfield of Dreams in 1990).

Maybe the team is still too new, maybe they need to do something to ingratiate themselves with the fans; I don’t know. I like the improvements on things to actually do at the park, loved the free parking from a few years ago, and ADORE the Kayem hot dogs they’re serving there now.

SuperBaes - February 7, 2012 reply

In fairness, the Trop is a dump

All those fucking catwalks.

its "gator" country, for the most part

I went to the Trop years ago and it was dreadful. Ive heard that they made impressive improvements but i havent been back since.

that sailboat theme ballpark they designed would have been sweet though.

Can we just check back in on NHs draft classes after this season. I defend NH all the time, but seriously, can we just give it one more season before we declare anything about his drafts. This is the year that even I am expecting more from his drafts. If Pedro, prep pitchers, Sanchez, etc don’t show up, then I agree, NH failed to a point in not scouting/drafting/developing the right guys. Until then, its still too soon to judge IMO.

C Shint - February 6, 2012 reply

I guess you expect the light bulb to come on for a BUNCH of NH draftees this season? One or two isn’t going to cut it.

Pedro and Tony would save his job, 100%

also, we get to see the ‘09 prep class at high A, lets see Cole in possibly AA with an extreme outside chance at the majors. What about Marte at AAA or guys like Owens Wilson Morris with a chance at the majors. Or Sanchez bouncing back. No? What about Dickerson, Curry, Osuna as the 1b prospect race heats up. What about d’Arnuad, Mercer, all the MI build up that have chances at being serviceable MLB players?

What about what Allie, Kingham, Heredia do? This season can answer quite a few questions for quite a few players. So yes, I do expect to see some things happen for a “bunch” of draftees, many of which are now at A+ or above starting in 2012

C Shint - February 6, 2012 reply

Again, I would point out that if d’Arnaud and/or Mercer were anywhere close to being ready to be a major league SS (in the eyes of the Pirates FO), they wouldn’t have signed Barmes to a 2 year/$10M+ contract. The fact that he signed for 2 years means they expect to need him in 2013.

Just about every non-Cedeno MI got 2 years. I mean, I agree that Chase and Jordy aren’t ready but I don’t think Barmes’ contract reflects on that.

Mr. E - February 7, 2012 reply

Most of them didn’t get $5M+ a season either.

Thunder - February 7, 2012 reply

thats because the pirates have to overpay

but it doesnt mean that Barmes spends the entire 2013 in the Burgh either.

the point I am making is simply this, I have given NH a general “pass” on his drafts and reflecting on those drafts until this point. After 2012 I have no problem looking back at the collective sum of stats and video for players drafted from the ‘08 – ’09 classes and deeming them “busts”, “good picks”, etc. Until the season is over though, I can’t say much more on them other than I am willing to give them one more year to see what happens

C Shint - February 7, 2012 reply

Either that, or he wasn’t willing to sign for just one year.

WHYG Zane Smith - February 7, 2012 reply

Reasonably likely

And he becomes either insurance for ‘13 or (assuming no collapse) a decent trade piece. If he WARs over 2 this year, he’ll have plenty of value at $5M for 2013. I understand the skepticism about him, but it’s really not a bad contract.

JRoth95 - February 7, 2012 reply

in an ideal world

He could even become part of the Grand Infield Shuffle, with him and one of the AAA guys as the double-play combo while Walker moves to third and Pedro to first.

Anyway, I think we can say that if the Pirates were sure that one of the AAA guys would step up to take the SS job in ‘13 they would’ve tried to avoid giving Barmes two years, but just because they gave him two years doesn’t mean they’re sure those guys won’t step up.

this!

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2011/05/03/davidi_bautista_routine/

just think

our3-4-5 hitters could have been cutch, batista and alvarez, huntington made one mistake in trading batista and some bad luck on alvarez. oh well the first window has closed so lets move on to the cole,bell and tallion era and move cutch for some 2014 ready prospects.

sweetleb - February 6, 2012 reply

as if it will enlighten you:

Bautista would not have learned here what he learned in Toronto.

BlindSquirrel - February 6, 2012 reply

Well, I think that would be part of the problem.

Here’s a quote from former Pirates hitting coach Jeff Manto, in 2007:

“If we can get him to replicate his swing three days in a row, Jose Bautista could hit 25 homers a year. In fact, I think he could hit 40. He is just so easily frustrated when it doesn’t go right that he blames himself and forgets what he’s learned. Or ignores it. But of all these guys I have, if you want one of them who will eventually do something special in this game, I’d pick him. I wouldn’t be very surprised.”

So, at least someone knew what the Pirates had in Bautista.

Plus, the Pirates all-time record for team home runs in a month was set in August of 2007, with 45. No Lumber Company team ever matched it, nor any of the Bonds-led teams of the early ’90s.

That team of Bay, McLouth, Nady, Bautista, Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche, and Ronny Paulino/Doumit had all sorts of trouble, individually, staying healthy. Even as far back as 2007. That line-up was rarely on the field together at the same time. But, in August of 2007, they were all healthy, for the most part. And when they were, like that month, that team could hit. It couldn’t pitch woth a flip, but it could hit. I thought it was fun to watch.

And that team’s hitting coach was Jeff Manto.

Hey, Jim Tracy had to go. He’s admitted himself, when he took the Rockies job, that he was just going through the motions, as the Pirates manager, in 2006 and 2007. The nickname “Sleepy Jim” was well-deserved.

And one can certainly understand Russell wanting to bring in his own hitting coach.

But I thought Manto did a pretty good job, when he was here. And I thought it was a shame that he got tossed out, along with Tracy, Jim Colburn, and the rest of Tracy’s crew. And I wished that the Pirates had retained Manto, in some capacity.

Who knows how things might have turned out in 2008, for Bautista, if Manto was still around? Things might have clicked earlier – while he was still a Pirate. .

Midnight Moose - February 8, 2012 reply

please remember that Bautista nearly played himself off the Jays roster before he took off in September of 2009

the batting coach for the jays at the time, dwayne murphy, and his manager cito gaston helped him with his swing, but if you read the below article, its pretty much Bautista finally started using his brain instead of just his braun.

the trouble with Pedro...

is in his head. Which NO ONE could ever predict in a draft unless he’d shown similar signs in college, which he didn’t. The good news is that he’s mechanically sound and has tremendous athletic ability, so the “light bulb” could go back on at any time.
Vote for Pedro

michaelbro8 - February 6, 2012 reply

totally agree

but he is still going to be a high success/high failure player. there will be no “average” Pedro, IMO.