Bucs Dugout

There's been some 'ongoing discussion' about the Pirates inability develop an above average homegrown shortstop, or to acquire one via trade/free agency. This is a point Dejan has hit numerous times, during his tenure at the PG and now in his current employ at the Trib. The criticism has been directed at the current front office but then in some cases has been extended to previous regimes. Generally I feel like including the efforts of a previous ownership, front office, or scouting department in such an evaluation is totally irrelevant, it serves the narrative of the story, because it extends the years of 'ineptitude', so you can be like these guys aren't just 'bad', they're 'really bad.' But it doesn't say anything about the acumen of current gm, scouting, etc.

My reaction up reading these articles has been, in a sense a series of questions I've considered:

1) Is it indeed true that the Pirates have been unable to develop an above average or even average MLB shortstop internally over the past quarter century? The answer to that question is an obvious yes. The shortstops who have put up the Top Four Fangraphs WAR for the Pirates during that period were all acquired via trades (Jay Bell, Jack Wilson, Ronny Cedeno, and Abraham Nunez).

2) While the Pirates weren't able to draft or sign a SS over those years how did the short stop play of those they acquired compare to the rest of the league. The Pirates two best SS over the last twenty-five years in terms of Fangraphs WAR were Bell and Wilson. Who totaled 25.1 and 14.8 WAR during their years with Pirates respectively. Also during those years Cedeno put up 2.9 WAR and Nunez 0.6.

Looking at Fangraphs WAR Bell's best years for the Pirates were 1991-1994 in which he put up the following WAR 4.5, 4.4, 6.6, and 3.6. His total WAR doing those years, 19.1, was second only to Cal Ripken, Jr. WIlson's peak years were roughly 2004-2007. His Fangraphs WAR during those years 4.7, 2.4, 0.9, 2.7. His total WAR 10.7 ties him for 13th during that period with Khalil Greene.

Bell was during those years, one of the best short stops in the game, according to the WAR stat. Wilson was, all told about average. Ronny Cedeno was, from 2009 to 2011 well below average, his WAR of 2.9 ranks him at 31 out of 34 short stops, so too was Nunez well below average.

So one SS who was above average, one who was about average, and two were below average. I couldn't find an easy way to compare the total WAR of those four players to the other teams in the league over the same period. If anyone knows of one I'd be curious to hear how they stack up. It strikes me though that the production the Pirates have gotten at shortstop over those years is probably all told about average, but certainly I could be wrong. Average of course largely because of Bell, who hasn't played for the Pirates since 1996, since then they've probably been below average.

3) What other options are out there? More relevant to the current discussion is an evaluation of the shortstops the Pirates have signed, drafted, and traded for since 2008, when Neal Huntington became GM. They inherited a Jack Wilson who was trending downward and traded him in 2009 for Ronny Cedeno, who while below average managed at least to stay on the field, as opposed to Wilson who's been beset with injuries since. Cedeno was five years younger had still had the potential for upside, so you'd rather have him than Wilson, even if you'd prefer to have neither.

They also signed Chris Gomez who put up -0.2 WAR in one season with the Pirates and Ramon Vasquez who also totalled -0.2 WAR during his time in Pittsburgh. There was Bobby Crosby who performed similarly to those two putting up -0.5 WAR in 2010 (all but 14 of those plate appearances were with the Pirates).

That those guys were bad certainly isn't news. The Pirates also showed interested in trading for JJ Hardy last winter, a move which I know a lot of folks advocated on here.

Short of not trading for Hardy, the reality I think is that there weren't a ton of great options after the handful of elite shortstops, so acquiring a MLB SS isn't easy, there aren't many who are above average.

Kevin and Jason were discussing this on the Up and In Podcast a few months back. The gist of their conversation was that the SS play of the 90's and early 2000's has perhaps resulted in expectations for what kind of player a team show have at the position that don't jive with the current reality.

4) How have the Pirates fared with respect to shortstops in the draft and international signings since 2008? Via the draft they have Chase D'Arnaud, Jordy Mercer, and Brock Holt in the system. Opinions vary on their career outcomes but I think the consensus I perceive is somewhere between average to slightly below average starter to utility player.

Internationally the Pirates signed Jodaneli Carvajal, Gift Ngoepe, and Jonathan Barrios in 2008. Alen Hanson in 2009. Dilson Herrera in 2010.

The Pirates had a chance to draft Manny Machado and Francisco Lindor in 2010 and 2011. In both cases it's hard to fault them for going with the pitcher.

Other top SS prospects who were drafted during those years. Nick Franklin, drafted 27th in 2009. Billy Hamilton drafted 57th (after Victor Black and Brock Pounders). Javier Baez taken 11th in the 2011 draft. Andrelton Simmons 70th in 2010.

To draft Franklin they would've had to take him 4th in 2009. They could have had Hamilton rather than the two aforementioned pitchers, that certainly that looks like a better pick in hindsight, but despite his speed there's still question as whether he can hit in the big leagues.

Other top SS prospects who were international signings. Jurickson Profar (signed in 2009), Hak-Ju Lee (signed in 2008), Xander Bogaerts (signed in 2009), Jean Segura (signed in 2007). Hak-Ju Lee has the potential to be an average to above average MLB SS depending on your evaluation of him. Profar is of course one of the top prospects in baseball and has an All Star ceiling, at the very least. Bogaerts looks likely to move to 3B from what I've read.

Of the top shortstop prospect I think it's fair to say maybe half look to be potential above average players and three (machado, lindor, and profar) the potential to be stars, of course feel free to disagree as that's purely speculative. But either way it illustrates the number of potentially above average players who can stick at SS is pretty limited.

5) To what degree has the Pirates previous inability to develop an above average shortstop been a direct result of not putting adequate money and resources into international scouting, particularly Latin America, under previous management?

If you take a look at the top 14 shortstops in 2011 according to Fangraphs WAR nine were signed out of Latin America. Of the top 20 shortstops since 2008, according to that metric, half are Latin American signings.

As noted above we've seen some international shortstop signings since 2008 when the Pirates finally started taking Latin America seriously. But it will take the Pirates a while to make up the ground they have to cover to catch up with teams who've made Latin America a priority for years. Alen Hanson and Dilson Herrera strike me as the most promising from what I've read but I know there are folks who are more up to speed on the international guys and the players in in the Latin American and Rookie Leagues in general, so let me know if it's that not the case. Both are so far away it's hard to gauge their likelihood of being above average players at this point.

It's true that the Pirates haven't had success developing a SS internally in eons and also true that the current front office hasn't had success acquiring an above average ML SS thus far (we'll see what happens with Barmes). But I think both of those points require some context. An above average SS is a fairly rare commodity relatively speaking, so it's not usually easy to acquire one. The Pirates had some opportunities to draft one but I don't fault them for instead taking 'the best player available' (Cole and Taillon). Finally the majority of above average shortstops come from Latin America and until Huntington and Connelly took over the Pirates virtually ignored Latin America.

We now have two guys at the top of our rotation who can eat up innings and have "miss the bat" stuff. Both guys are really walking into great situations. Health, both mental and physical will decide how their seasons end up, but here are some reasons to have high hopes.

The biggest reason is the woeful offenses in the NL Central. The Astros are predicted to have a historically bad year. Even if they have some of their young guys with breakout seasons, this team is going to be awful, strikeout a lot and not score few runs. The Cubs are in the same boat. Two of their top three leading power hitters are gone in Pena and Ramirez and they are shopping their third in Soriano. The Brewers look to have a solid pitching staff, but they will also need to be a lot better as Fielder is gone and Braun looks to miss 50 games. They picked up Ramirez, but he is getting older and is going to need to carry that offense. The Reds return a solid lineup, but they do strikeout a lot. If Macdonald can take a step forward, then our strikeout per nine as a staff should jump 10 fold. The Cardinals also look to return a solid offense, but they also lost the best player in the game. Both Berkman and Beltran will be injury risks and have the possibility of dropping off.

The NL Central should have the fewest runs scored as a whole in the league(quite possibly by a large margin.) Then you look at our defense. We are strong up the middle. We have one of the fastest and best defensive outfields in the league. We also right now have 6 major league starters with a 7th looking for his opportunity. Undoubtedly there will be injuries, but we are deep enough to throw someone other than Brian Burress in there to compete. This is the time of season to have unconditional optimism. This is something that is still hard for Pirates fans, but if you take into account our strengths and the overall weakness of our division, there really is reason to think this is the year we break .500.

Growing up in the 80's, the thought of the Pirates actually having a celebratory scrum in the middle of a baseball diamond after clinching a title was pretty abstract, even more so than now, as a matter of fact.

By the mid-80's, the days of "We are Family" were long gone as the team finished in last place for three straight years. And to make matters even worse, the Pirates clubhouse was the epicenter of the infamous drug trials that rocked Major League Baseball. In addition to that, there were rumors that the Pirates would be sold to out-of-town owners who would move the team to another city.

Things couldn't have been worse.

Thankfully, the City of Pittsburgh stepped in and helped to form a public/private consortium which allowed the Pirates to remain in town.

Syd Thrift was hired to run the baseball side of things as the team's general manager, and one of the best moves any Pittsburgh sports executive ever made occurred when Thrift hired Jim Leyland to manage the club in 1986.

The Pirates still finished in last place that season, but there was at least hope in the form of players such as Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla.

Before the 1987 season, the Pirates acquired outfielder Andy Van Slyke and catcher Mike Lavalliere in the famous April Fool's trade involving All Star catcher Tony Pena.

The Pirates were still struggling and near the bottom of the standings in late 1987, but thanks to the team winning 27 of their final 38 games down the stretch, they finished the season 80-82 and in a tie for fourth place. Not much reason to celebrate, but I remember the players going a little crazy in the clubhouse. Hey, gotta start somewhere.

The Pirates showed the world they were true contenders again in 1988 by finishing in 2nd place to the New York Mets. It was a distant second, but again, you have to crawl before you can learn to walk.

Injuries set the team back a bit in 1989, but 1990 would be the year that the Pirates would rise from the ashes and take their place along the elite teams of MLB.

In April of that year, the Pirates went 10-3 on a weird six-city road swing that was the result of a brief work-stoppage in Spring Training, and this proved to be the catalyst to their run to a division title.

The Pirates were in first place for most of the year, and after sweeping the New York Mets in early September, they were in first place to stay.

With about ten days left in the season, Pittsburgh had a three-game lead over New York. The Mets were the Pirates tormentors for most of the previous decade, and the last thing I wanted to see happen was for New York to come back and grab the title in the final days. The Mets were scheduled to play in Pittsburgh for the final three games of the season, and I was hoping they could somehow wrap up the division before then.

Fortunately, after losing to the Cardinals at Three Rivers stadium on a Saturday afternoon, the Pirates wouldn't lose another meaningful game the rest of the way.

The Pirates swept the Cubs at Three Rivers and then it was off to St. Louis for a weekend series. The Mets were hanging with Pittsburgh all week and still only three games back. The Pirates defeated the Cardinals on a Friday night, but the Mets won to keep pace.

The next day, however, Pittsburgh won thanks to a complete game shutout by Bob Walk, and the Mets lost to the Cubs. With four games left, the Pirates had clinched at least a tie for the NL East championship.

KDKA sportscaster John Steigerwald (back before he hated baseball) even said "We are in!" during his sports report. Everyone was catching the fever.

"Gotta believe it's our time. Gotta believe it's true!"

The Pirates just needed to take care of business the next day and my long-time abstract thought would finally become a reality.

The Steelers were playing that day, and even though they've always been my first love, I didn't care one bit about them at that moment. My only thoughts were with the Pirates.

As the Steelers were getting blownout at Three Rivers Stadium by the Miami Dolphins, Doug Drabek was in the process of pitching a complete game masterpiece in St. Louis, and the Pirates won 2-0 to clinch their first division title since 1979.

It had finally happened! The Pirates were celebrating in the middle of the diamond, and I was going nuts in my grandmother's living room.

There haven't been too many times in my life when the result of a game gave me a euphoric feeling, but on September 30th, 1990, I had that feeling, and it stayed with me for days and days.

I'll never forget it.

Hey, all -

This is off-topic as far as the Pirates' team is concerned, but on-topic as far as "our team" at BD goes in general.

THIS post (opens in new window) from Pinstripe Alley is a good and easy primer on how to re-size* the photos you post into threads, so that they're not HUGE, which can cause big problems for people when loading the page, particularly on a mobile device.

This is also a really important point [emphasis mine]:

Make sure you put something in the subject line so other posters can close it if they'd like, even if you just put an "x".

In case you didn't know, when you're reading a thread and a picture is really massive, or if you somehow find it offensive (though really, we don't tend to do those), you can simply click on the subject line, and the picture / post will reduce and you won't see it.

I know that, in the past (like 2010), I had been occasionally guilty of posting massively BIG pics - and while sometimes it was annoying when re-loading the page, it really hit home when I got an iPhone and used it to follow gamethreads when not at home. Big pics take forever to load. And big pics that are animated are even more problematic for people with slower connections.

So, I'm posting this as a public service rather than an accusation of anyone for posting big pictures - please don't anyone think I'm referring to you personally, mmmk?

*Note: the 300 size is arbitrary - you can make it 250, or 400, but anything over that is kinda where the problem starts, IMO.

(Also note: Charlie, Vlad, et al - if you wanna move this to fanshots, I dig, I just thought it contained more information than a typical fanshot.)

From WTM's profiles

The Pirates could have a catching crunch at Altoona in 2012, as both Cabrera and Paulino deserve promotions, but Altoona’s 2011 catcher, Tony Sanchez, does not.

At Bradenton in 2011 Ramon Cabrera hit 0.343, with 25 doubles and 38 walks (as opposed to 29 strike outs). In contrast, his understudy, Carlos Paulino, hit 0.299, with 18 doubles, 18 walks, and 33 strikeouts.

In contrast, Tony Sanchez hit 0.314 with 17 doubles, 28 walks, and 41 strike outs at Bradenton in 2010. Although Sanchez is a good receiver, he has not done so well in throwing out runners. In three minor league seasons he's thrown out 22% of runners attempting to steal. Of course Cabrera only threw out 23%, but Paulino threw out 34%. Sure, sure, you steal on the pitcher, not on the catcher. But the pitchers were not any more adept when Cabrera or Paulino were catching.

I was surfing the web this afternoon and decided to check in on the lunatics over in Smizik-Land. I was surprised to see my beloved BD mentioned by one of Bob-O's regulars, something that goes by the name of "Daquido Bazzini". I'm sure that many of you guys are familiar with his rantings. He writes in a peculiar, stream of consciousness style that is more random outburst than coherent thought. The common thread is his virulent hatred of all things Nutting.

Well he has donned his tinfoil hat again and he has "outted" BD as a publicity arm of the Pirates:

"Speaking of Francois Coonelly........Take a look at a certain Pirate (fan???) site today. I couldn't help but to notice the top of the board article is a feature of a discussion with Mssr. Coonely from Pirate Fest in December.
They are seriously debating and pondering "draft pool numbers."
What "fans" can discuss serious draft pool numbers with the President of a MLB club?!
You don't see this in the PG....Or any other local paper, or for that matter MLB.com, Yahoo, etc.....You see it on a fan site.
Strange and unusual behavior from a Regime that works in a never ending scheme of propaganda within their own means."

I guess the jig is up guys. We have been sussed out!

Way back when I was still a kid, during the Pirates three-year run as NL East Champions, my brother called me one morning all excited because the Pirates had acquired Kirk Gibson in a minor offseason deal. Gibson was far removed from his fist-pumping game-winning home run in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series, but my brother said, "I can't believe they got him! He's a name, baby! I mean, that's someone that we know!" He was aw-struck at the thought of the Pirates getting Gibson even though they were already one of the most talented teams in baseball with Barry Bonds, Andy Van Slyke and Doug Drabek, and Gibson was going to be just a role player on the team.

Just last week, some twenty years later, my brother called me on the phone again all excited about the rumors of the Pirates maybe landing A.J. Burnett from the Yankees. Once again, he said, "man, that's someone we know. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball at one time."

That's my brother, he hasn't changed a bit. A player could be so broken down that he needs a walker to get to the ballpark, but if he has a recognizable name on the back of his jersey, my brother gets all giddy.

Unlike those Pirates teams from the early 90's, however, I can kind of see why my bro would get excited over Burnett coming to Pittsburgh. It's not often that the Pirates are involved with a trade with the Yankees, and that they're the team that's acquiring the high-priced veteran in exchange for some lower-level prospects. But as I've said before, this just smells like the same old crap.

I'm a bit sensitive to this kind of thing after so many years of seeing it happen over and over again. Someone mentioned the other day that anytime someone says, "I'm a long-suffering Pirates fan" they stop paying attention. Well, I'm sorry, but I am, and after eating crap for the last two-decades, the second I think someone is trying to shovel more of it down my throat, my gag reflex kicks in big-time.

I don't really blame the Pirates for this, it's the system of baseball. When a certain player is in the prime of his career, he goes to the highest-bidder (Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies) and signs a mega-contract. Once that player reaches another point in his career, better known as the latter stages, he tries to hang on for a few more years, usually with a struggling team (Pirates, Royals) that's looking to recapture the magic that the player once had.


Call me crazy, but I get the feeling A.J. Burnett is in the latter-stages of his career, and other than eating up some innings, I don't see where he's going to benefit the Pirates a whole heck of a lot.

Is he still a functional starter? I guess it all depends on what you mean by functional.

Ever go to the Sports Deli in Parkway Center Mall? It's a place where they sell sports memorabilia. Right outside the store, they have a table with discounted items on it like a "Tommy Gun" t-shirt, for example. Who would buy that shirt? Tommy Maddox was a sensation with the Steelers nearly ten seasons ago.

If you did actually buy a "Tommy Gun" t-shirt, where would you wear it? I suppose you could wear it to paint your house, and it might come in handy if you wanted to go to a Halloween party dressed like Tommy, but other than that, there really is no use for it in your daily rotation of shirts.

As a Pirates fan, that's how I feel about any transaction that involves a guy in his mid-30's.

The Burnett of five years ago would have been great to have in the daily rotation, but now? I hope I'm wrong.

This Burnett trade just smells like Derek Belle and Jeromy Burnitz all over again. As a fan, I'm always asking, "why couldn't these guys have come to the Pirates in their prime?" And some hot-shot baseball guy will always retort, "because when they were in their prime, they would never come to the Pirates."

And people wonder why I'm cynical about this kind of stuff.

Burnett had his career year in 2008, that's a really long time ago in baseball years.

In my opinion, if the Pirates can't acquire guys like Burnett when they're their prime, don't acquire them at all. If they're still hanging on at the ends of their careers, trying to latch on with a team like the Buccos just so they can earn a few more pay-checks, I'd say, "sorry, you had your chance. Don't let the door hit you in the butt on the way out."

I just get the feeling a lot of Pirates fans are excited about Burnett because of what he once did, and not what he may do in the future.

I know my brother is.

It might be useful to put the Pirates' 2012 draft spending in some perspective, as it's hard to keep track of what other teams have spent in the past. Here's a look at what teams spending in the 8th, 45th, 69th, and 98th slots spent last year. (Right now, that's where the Pirates are scheduled to pick.) The bottom line is that under the CBA the Pirates could make a competitive offer to a draftee and still be able to offer players chosen in rounds 4 through 10 an average of $324, 883. What you can't do in this environment is pull a Josh Bell or go overslot often.

The fact that the 2012 compensation system is ridiculous, should get fixed for 2013.

Joe Starkey's column this morning is hardly the first to point out how much is riding on Pedro Alvarez developing into a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. But reading it sort of crystallized my thinking about the status of this team and prompted a few thoughts.

1. If Alvarez has a breakout year, this team is a contender as soon as next season. A lineup that starts off with Tabata, Presley, McCutchen and a productive Alvarez, followed by Walker, Jones/McGehee, Barajas and Barmes actually doesn't sound too bad -- especially with the addition of Cole to the pitching staff next season.

2. If Alvarez continues to flounder, though, you have to start thinking he's a bust -- in which case you have to seriously consider a major rebuild, starting with trading Cutch.

Why? Mostly because we've got a three-year, first-round talent gap to fill. Moskos, Alvarez and Sanchez were all taken as college players who would presumably be in the majors within two years of being drafted and productive within three. Thus far, only Alvarez has shown any glimpses of being a solid major leaguer, and he's currently our biggest question mark.

Simply put, if Alvarez can be what he was drafted to be, this team can be competitive in the short term and ride out the talent trough we're facing over the coming few years until the next big wave -- Taillon, Bell and Heredia -- starts to arrive in 2015 and 2016.

If he can't, this team is going to be as bad for the next three years as it's been for the past 20. In which case my suggestion would be to start dealing off people like Cutch, Tabata and Walker in hopes of acquiring the pieces you'll need to surround the likes of Marte, Bell, Taillon, Heredia, et al, with when that day comes.

Of course that would also make necessary my final point:

3. Neal Huntington would have to be fired and some other GM would brought in to oversee our next major rebuilding effort.

After days and days of speculation, the trade of A.J. Burnett from the Yankees to the Pirates has finally been completed.

As a long-suffering Pirates fan, this looks like another case of the team acquiring a once dominant player in the twilight of his career. Like Sean Casey and Matt Morris before him, Burnett was one of the best in the game a few years ago, but after signing with New York, his production slipped considerably, and he was a .500 pitcher during his time with the Yankees with an ERA hovering around 5.

I've been an advocate of going with a total youth movement and saving any veteran acquisitions for a time when the team is really close to contending.

After a 72-90 season, I'm not so sure the Pirates are close. Even if it works out with Burnett, how much of a difference is it going to make in the win/loss record?

I bet my brother that if Burnett is still with the team past the trading deadline, I would shave my head.

What are the chances that I'll have to go out and buy some clippers in August?